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珠海港(000507):投资收益略超预期 大藤峡枢纽通航带来新机遇

東興證券 ·  May 5, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Event: In 2019, the company achieved revenue of 3.32 billion yuan (+27.0%), net profit of 221 million yuan (+31.5%), net profit of 221 million yuan (+31.5%), and earnings per share of 0.25 yuan (+7.5%). In the first quarter, the company achieved revenue of 590 million yuan (-3.9%) and net profit of 11 million yuan (+42.7%). Xijiang's strategy progressed steadily, and port production capacity continued to increase: during the reporting period, Yunfu New Port achieved cargo throughput of 5.28 million tons (+10.9%) and container throughput of 240,000 TEUs (+3.2%); Wuzhou Port achieved annual cargo throughput of 1.72 million tons (+8.4%) and container throughput of 840,000 TEUs (+18%). In terms of port construction, Guiping Xinlong Wharf completed land acquisition work and commenced construction of berths 2 and 3 and supporting projects; Wuzhou Port completed construction of berths 3 and 4 during the year. Shipping fleet construction accelerates: In 2019, the company added 97,000 tons of its own capacity. Currently, its own capacity has reached 145,000 tons, with a total control capacity of more than 430,000 tons. The fleet is centered on Gaolan's home port to enhance the radiation effect on the Xijiang River Basin network. In 2019, the traffic volume reached 650,000 TEUs, an increase of 64.9% over the previous year, and the total cargo throughput of the Xijiang River Basin via Zhuhai Port reached 43.76 million tons, an increase of 5.22% over the previous year. The integrated energy business maintained stable operation, and investment income increased dramatically: the subsidiary, Zhuhai Gangsheng, successfully acquired Anhui Suzhou Wind Farm, and the number of wind farms in the power sector increased to 6, achieving 471 million kilowatts of feed-in electricity throughout the year and a total profit of 74 million yuan. The company received annual investment income of 157 million yuan (+53.7%), mainly due to the dividend income of Guangzhu Power Generation of 110 million yuan, an increase of 51% over the previous year. The impact of the epidemic has a lagging effect on the shipping sector. The impact is expected to be mainly reflected in the second quarter: the increase in the company's net profit in the first quarter was mainly due to the lower profit volume in the same period last year, as well as the shareholding company CNOOC Zhuhai Gaspower's dividend of more than 9 million yuan, which greatly increased investment income. The impact of the epidemic on the company's performance in the first quarter was not obvious. It was mainly due to the long transit time of maritime import and export trade, which had a lag effect on throughput. The impact of the epidemic on the company's business level is mainly as follows: 1. About 80% of the foreign trade imports of Yunfu New Port are stone. Iran, Spain and other source countries have been affected by the epidemic, and import and export volumes have all been affected; 2. Demand for raw materials from enterprises in the lower reaches of the Xijiang River Basin has declined, and the resumption of work and production has been delayed, causing ships to pressure the port, affecting throughput; 3. The epidemic has caused delays in the resumption of work, and the decline in the electricity and gas load of enterprises, affecting the company's energy sector performance; 4. The average delay in the construction period of ships under construction is about 3 months. We expect that the impact of the epidemic will be mainly reflected in the second quarter, and that it will basically subside in the third quarter. The navigation of the Grand Tengxia Lock has significantly improved navigation capacity in the upper reaches of the Xijiang River: At the end of March, the Grand Tengxia Hub lock test pass was successful, marking that the navigation level of Qianjiang can be raised from the current 300 ton level to the highest level of inland waterway shipping in China of 3,000 tons, and the annual transportation capacity from 13 million tons to 52 million tons. Grand Tengxia Navigation will significantly change the navigation environment in the upper reaches of the Xijiang River, effectively increase the scale of shipping in the Xijiang River Basin, and bring substantial benefits to the company's port and shipping business. Company profit forecast and investment rating: The company's net profit for 20-22 is estimated to be 170, 2.55 and 298 million yuan, respectively, and EPS of 0.18, 0.27, and 0.32 yuan respectively. The epidemic will have a direct negative impact on the company's performance this year, but as the impact of the epidemic weakens, the improvement of the navigation environment in the Xijiang River Basin and the company's previous layout in ports and shipping will lead to a continuous increase in the company's revenue and profitability, so maintain the “recommended” rating. Risk warning: The macroeconomy falls short of expectations; shipping prices fluctuate greatly; and the performance and dividends of participating companies fluctuate.

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