What happened: the company released its 19-year annual report and 20-year quarterly report. The 19-year income, return net profit and non-return net profit were 1.217 billion, 130 million and 112 million respectively,-25%,-65% and-70% respectively. The income, net profit and deduction of non-return net profit in the first quarter of 20 years were-17%,-52% and-33% respectively compared with the same period last year. The comments are as follows:
In 19 years, the company took the initiative to control goods, resulting in a year-on-year decline in revenue. The revenue in 19 years is-25% compared with the same period last year, and we estimate that the main reason is that the company controls the inventory of goods and digestion channels. The gross profit margin was 77.8%, down 3.3% from the same period last year. We estimate that this is mainly due to the use of discount tickets for the company's sales support to some key commercial customers. The sales expense rate is 44.5%, up 5.7% from the same period last year. We estimate that the company continues to increase terminal marketing investment and sinks sales channels. Management expenses are + 10.6% compared with the same period last year, and the rate of management expenses increases due to reduced income.
19-year rebate improvement. In 1819, the income was 1.62 billion and 1.22 billion respectively, and the payment received for the sale of goods was 750 million and 940 million respectively, and the rebate was improved.
Income affected by the epidemic declined in the first quarter of 20 years compared with the same period last year. Although the company's Angong Niuhuang pill was included in COVID-19 's treatment guidelines, and we estimate a substantial increase in sales, the company's revenue and profit fell sharply in the first quarter of 20 years due to a sharp drop in the flow of people at drugstores compared with the same period last year.
Growth is expected to return to 2020. 1. From the perspective of third-party data, the terminal sales of the company's key products have maintained rapid growth in the past 19 years, and the channel inventory has been effectively digested; 2. Under the company's continuous terminal marketing, the main products are full of stamina. It is expected that growth will resume as the epidemic recedes.
Profit forecast and investment rating: we expect the company's 20-22 year-on-year return net profit to be + 30%, 30%, 25%, 0.34, 0.44, 0.56, respectively, and the current share price corresponds to a 20-year pe valuation of about 36x. As a brand proprietary Chinese medicine star enterprise, the company is expected to pick up growth after the completion of channel inventory digestion, and it can be expected to give a "prudent recommendation-A" rating in the future.
Risk tips: product sales do not meet expectations; bad debt risk; production and operation risk.
