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伟能集团(1608.HK):缅甸23.2兆瓦电站如期投运

中泰國際 ·  Jun 4, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Myanmar's Kyun Chaung Power Station was put into operation as scheduled on June 3, and VPower Group confirmed in October last year that it won the bid for a 23.2 MW power generation project located in Kyun Chaung, Mugegu County, Magui Province, Myanmar, and was put into commercial operation on June 3, 2020, in line with our expectations. The project contract period is 24 months; when the company meets certain requirements, it can be extended to a maximum of 60 months. The project was put into operation just in time to meet Myanmar's peak electricity demand this summer. Three more Myanmar joint venture projects will also be put into operation in the middle of the year. According to our understanding, the company's other three Myanmar joint venture power generation projects with a total installed capacity of 1,059.5 MW will also be put into operation in the middle of this year as scheduled, supporting the company's explosive profit growth this year and next two years. Maintaining Profit Forecast We maintain our profit forecast. Shareholders' net profit is expected to rise from HK$280 million in 2019 to HK$1.37 billion in 2022, with a CAGR of 68.9% during the period. Reiterating the “buy” rating, we will accordingly maintain the target price estimated by discounted cash flow analysis at HK$5.30, which corresponds to 12.6 times the 2021 price-earnings ratio and 37.7% increase. Reiterate the “buy” rating. Risk warning: (1) delays in project development; (2) tight gas supply; (3) policy risks; (4) slowdown in electricity demand.

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