This report is read as follows:
Taking into account the valuation of the industry and comparable companies, as well as the underpricing behavior caused by the high price excluding the risk in the inquiry process, we expect the oat technology offering price range of 19.72 yuan to 21.62 yuan.
Summary:
At present, the market has entered the stage of information effectiveness and inter-agency low-price game, taking into account the valuation of industry and comparable companies, as well as the underpricing behavior caused by high price elimination risk in the process of inquiry. We estimate that the corresponding inquiry range of oat technology in May 22 is between 19.72 yuan and 21.62 yuan.
Oat Technology is a leading manufacturer of FPC test equipment in the industry. The company achieved a net profit of 91.25 million yuan in 2019, with a compound growth rate of 72.2% in the past three years, and R & D expenditure accounted for 16.1% of revenue. Gross profit margin, net profit rate and ROE in 2019 were 60.0%, 33.7% and 18.0%, respectively, and tended to rise year by year. The company continues to invest high in R & D, accounting for 15% of revenue in the past three years. The company actively develops and responds to customer needs. Since its establishment in 2012, the company has started from testing fixtures to developing multi-process testing equipment. The company developed automated testing equipment, and began to supply large-scale goods to Apple Inc in 2015. Under the background of the development of artificial intelligence, the company developed intelligent visual testing equipment. Combine automated testing with automated production, innovative R & D and product delivery capabilities to build competitive advantage. Seven of the top ten FPC companies in the world are customers, including Pengding Holdings, Japan Qisheng, etc., and the company has also become a supplier to Apple Inc, Alphabet Inc-CL C and other companies. High-quality customer resources establish the company's industry leading position. The expansion, transformation and upgrading of the downstream terminal electronic products market will promote the stable development of the FPC industry and drive the development of the test equipment industry. In the future, the industry will show the development trend of automation and intelligence, and gradually realize domestic substitution.
Based on the above analysis and the disclosure of the company's prospectus, we choose Huaxingyuan Chuang (688001.SH), Nagawa Technology (300604.SZ) and 002975.SZ as comparable companies according to the similarity of products or business. The price-to-earnings ratio of comparable companies in 2019 is 43.71-99.69 times, with an average of 71.70 times; in 2020, the predicted price-to-earnings ratio is 34.96-82.14 times, with an average of 55.20 times.
Reference to the company's industry "C35 special equipment manufacturing" nearly a month (as of May 21, 2020) static price-to-earnings ratio of 39.87 times. We take the valuation of comparable companies and industries as the basis, and according to the 2019 net profit disclosed in the prospectus, we give a valuation range of 30-35 times PE, which is lower than the average price-to-earnings ratio of the industry and comparable companies. based on the estimated total share capital of no more than 143 million shares after issuance, the market capitalization is expected to be 2.829 billion-3.103 billion yuan, and the corresponding issuing price range is 19.72-21.62 yuan.
Risk tips: (1) beware of 10% high price rigid elimination risk and the second game behavior on the day of market quotation. (2) the risk of relying on Apple Inc Company and its industrial chain.
