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德联集团(002666)2019年年报和2020年一季报点评:一季度业绩承压 电动化打开市场空间

Comments on the 002666 Annual report and the first Quarterly report of 2020: the first quarter results are under pressure and electrification opens the market space.

國信證券 ·  May 21, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Affected by the epidemic, the first-quarter results are under pressure.

In 2019, the company achieved revenue of 3.851 billion yuan, year-on-year + 3.26%, net profit of 218 million yuan, + 50.84%, non-210 million yuan, + 38.29%, slightly higher than expected. In 2020, Q1 realized revenue of 539 million yuan (- 31.55%) and net profit of 18.9538 million yuan (- 11.79%). The performance declined in the first quarter affected by the epidemic.

Improve gross profit margin and increase investment in research and development

Fourth fee accounted for 11.26% in 2019, slightly lower 0.04pct than the same period last year, including 4.16% for sales, 3.79% for management, 2.70% for R & D, and 10% for R & D personnel in 2019. This is mainly due to the increase in R & D labor expenditure and R & D materials. The company's gross profit margin was 16.20%, an increase of 1.21pct over the same period last year, of which the gross profit margin of the main business of automotive fine chemicals was 18.56%, an increase of 1.75pct over the same period last year.

Reduce losses in post-market business, electrification opens product space

1) by the end of 2019, the company had 2 self-operated flagship stores, developed more than 230regional partners and more than 20000 cooperation mode service contract stores by the end of 2017, with benefits of-24.6758 million yuan,-19.8685 million yuan and-4.4139 million yuan respectively in 2017, 2018 and 2019, with losses continuing to decrease. With the expansion of the business scale, the profit level is expected to continue to improve; 2) the traditional bicycle value of the company's existing products is 400-500 yuan, the demand for structural glue and antifreeze for new energy vehicles is increasing, and the bicycle value is expected to reach 1500-2000 yuan. Automobile electrification enhances the market space of existing products.

The leader of automotive fine chemicals, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

The company is the leading market leader in the domestic antifreeze preloading market, with a market share of more than 20%, steady growth of traditional business, active layout of the automobile aftermarket, and electrification to promote the continuous improvement of the bicycle value of the company's products.

Considering that the company's post-market business is less affected by the epidemic and the adhesive products are growing rapidly, we temporarily maintain the previous profit forecast with a new forecast of 21max for 22 years. It is estimated that in 20-21-22, the annual EPS is 0.32, 0.36 and 0.42, respectively, and the corresponding PE is 17.6, 15.5 and 13.4 times, respectively, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk hint: car sales have fallen sharply; the development of the post-market and new energy business is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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