Main points of investment:
The company's 19-year performance growth was stable, and 20-year Q1 performance was affected to a certain extent. The company released its 19-year annual report and 20-year quarterly report: (1) the revenue in 19 years was 2.508 billion yuan, an increase of 12.73% over the same period last year; the net profit returned to its mother was 465 million yuan, an increase of 9.56% over the same period last year; and the net cash flow of operating activities was 723 million yuan, an increase of 49.11% over the same period last year. (2) Q1 realized revenue of 245 million yuan in 20 years, a decrease of 33.1% over the same period last year. The return net profit was-19.6218 million yuan, compared with 12.3731 million yuan in the same period last year, mainly due to the decrease of the company's business income due to the epidemic.
The profit margin remained stable in 19 years, and the three fees remained stable.
In terms of profit margin, the company's gross profit margin in 19 years was 30.19% (+ 0.33%), which remained stable as a whole. From a business point of view, the gross profit margins of book business, periodical business and publication import business are 53.73% (- 1.75%), 36.94% (+ 9.2%) and 5.58% (+ 0.89%), respectively. The increase in gross profit margin of periodical business is obviously due to the gradual decrease of periodical paper production and sales volume and the gradual increase of the proportion of electronic periodicals. In terms of expense rate, in 19 years, the company's sales expense rate was 5.36% (- 0.91%), management expense rate was 9.93% (+ 0.85%), and financial expense rate was-4.26% (- 0.19%).
Policy: favorable policies are introduced intensively, and it is of great strategic significance for China's sci-tech periodicals to enter the golden period of development, which is a concrete embodiment of the strength of the country's frontier scientific and technological fields, and a necessary link in the process of internationalization of China's publishing industry. it is also the only way for the country to build scientific and technological competitiveness and enhance cultural soft power. On November 14, 18, the Fifth meeting of the Central Committee for comprehensively deepening Reform examined and adopted the opinions on deepening Reform and cultivating World-class Sci-tech Journals. The meeting stressed that sci-tech periodicals directly reflect the country's scientific and technological competitiveness and cultural soft power. With the goal of building world-class sci-tech periodicals, we should refine and strengthen a number of journals in basic and traditional areas. On August 5, 19, the China Association for Science and Technology, the propaganda Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China, the Ministry of Education and the Ministry of Science and Technology jointly issued the opinions on deepening Reform and cultivating World-class Sci-tech Journals. It is proposed that the excellent Action Plan for Chinese Sci-tech Journals will be taken as the leader to promote the reform and development of China's sci-tech periodicals. In September and November of the same year, heavyweight policies such as the notice on the Organization and implementation of the Project Declaration of the Excellence Action Plan for Chinese Sci-tech Journals and the selected projects of the Excellence Action Plan for Chinese Sci-tech Journals were issued respectively. At present, the Science Press has more than 150 English periodicals, which is far in the leading position in the domestic industry, so as China's English sci-tech periodicals enter a historic golden period of development, the company will also be the biggest beneficiary.
Over the past 19 years, the book industry as a whole has been sound, and the company's scientific publishing barriers are still prominent. according to the 2019 China Book Retail Market report, the scale of China's book retail market continued to grow in 1919, with the size of Taiyang reaching 102.27 billion yuan, an increase of 14.4% over the same period last year, breaking through the 100 billion yuan mark for the first time. Among them, the online store book retail code increased by 24.9% over the same period last year, with a scale of 71.51 billion yuan. Physical stores fell 4.24% from the same period last year, with a scale of 30.76 billion yuan, and the market as a whole showed a trend of steady growth.
In terms of book business, in the past 19 years, the company has continued to strengthen the direction of boutique publishing, promoting the construction of major projects and strengthening science brands around the five business areas of science (S), technology (T), education (E), medicine (M) and humanities and social sciences (H). A total of 9 projects were selected into the 2019 National Publishing Fund Project, and 7 projects were added to the National key Book Publishing Planning Project of the 13th five-year Plan. A total of 70 projects were selected in the National key Book Publishing Planning Project of the 13th five-year Plan, and 119 projects were supported by the Science and Technology academic works Publishing Fund of the Ministry of Science and Technology in 2019, accounting for more than half of the total.
In terms of periodical business, the influence of the company's periodicals has been greatly enhanced. In 1919, 61 kinds of journals were selected into the SCI, of which 16 were in the Q1 area of international journals in the same field. National Science Review
The latest impact factor of National Science Review is 13.222, ranking second only to Nature and Science in the ranking of international multidisciplinary journals, and has become an important platform to show major research progress at home and abroad and an important window for the world to understand China's cutting-edge scientific and technological activities. The SCI impact factors of journals such as the China Science Series, Science Bulletin and Energy Chemistry have also reached record highs. Among them, the latest impact factor of Science Bulletin is 6.277, ranking eighth in the global comprehensive academic journals.
The company's digital projects continue to land, transformation and upgrading continue to accelerate. The company continues to accelerate the construction of digital platform in three major business directions: professional discipline knowledge base, digital education integrated services, and medical and health big data.
The content resources of digital business products or knowledge service platforms such as "science library", "Chinese science cloud education platform" and "traditional Chinese medicine library" have been continuously enriched, their functions have been further upgraded and optimized, and the scale of users has continued to expand. A new batch of digital business products or knowledge service platforms such as "Anhui Information Technology Teaching Assistance platform", "Top Scholar sharing Class" and "Longmen homework Bao" have also been put online one after another, and formed sales revenue, providing a new driving force for the company's sustainable development in the future.
The company has made a major breakthrough in publishing "going out" strategy, and its international influence has been greatly enhanced. The company's merger and acquisition of French EDP Sciences100% shares in 19 years is of great significance, on the one hand, it indicates that domestic publishing companies can participate in more mergers and acquisitions in the international publishing industry in the future, and has taken a solid step towards the internationalization of the publishing industry's product content; at the same time, the French EDP began to merge in December 19, which will form part of the support for the company's annual performance in the past 20 years. In business, the company exported 171 kinds of book copyright and 11 kinds of periodicals, and realized more than 7 million yuan in royalties. In the release of the latest list of the Top 50 Publishers in 2019, the company was shortlisted for the first time and ranked 45th, and its influence in the world continues to grow.
The epidemic situation in the past 20 years has a certain impact on the company, but the low base effect and professional barriers still guarantee the annual performance.
The performance of Q1 company in the past 20 years has been affected by the epidemic to a certain extent, but the annual performance of Q1 accounts for the lowest proportion of the whole year (the proportion of net profit in 16-19 years is less than 5%, of which Q1 net profit lost in 16 and 18 years). Coupled with the company's deep professional barriers to scientific publishing and strong market demand rigidity, we believe that the impact of the epidemic on the company's overall performance is relatively limited.
Profit Forecast and Investment rating
We believe that the barrier advantage of the company in domestic professional science book publishing is obvious, the competitiveness is second to none, and the company continues to be optimistic about the future transformation direction of the company's scarce professional science and technology book publishing capability. it is expected to benefit from the continuous increase of investment in science and technology and the gradual improvement of comprehensive strength to achieve sustained growth.
We are optimistic about the development of the company for a long time and give the company an investment rating of "overweight". It is estimated that the EPS of the company from 2020 to 2022 will be 0.51,0.63 and 0.70 yuan per share respectively.
Risk hint
The risk of market policy, the reduction of the prosperity of the domestic science and technology publishing market, the risk of cooperation in the import of publications, the continuous intensification of market competition in primary and secondary schools, the risk of replacement of e-books and other media, and the impact of the epidemic on the company's resumption of work and production exceeded expectations.