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正荣地产(6158.HK):销售逆势增长 财务杠杆稳健

東北證券 ·  May 18, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Event: The company announced operating data for April 2020. In April 2020, the company, together with joint ventures and joint ventures, achieved a contract sales amount of 10.498 billion yuan, a slight increase of 2.6% over the previous year, and contract sales of about 698,900 square meters; from January to April, it achieved a cumulative contract sales amount of 35.272 billion yuan, an increase of 24.2% over the previous year, leading the national commercial housing sales data, significantly leading the national commercial housing sales data, achieving a cumulative contract sales area of 1,859,800 square meters, with an average sales price of about 15,300 yuan/square meter. The value structure to be promoted is reasonable, and the total amount is sufficient. In 2019, the company added 41 blocks of land storage, corresponding to a construction area of about 5.6 million square meters, of which land storage in second-tier cities accounted for 85%, and the equity ratio increased to 73% from 33% in 2018; by the end of 2019, the company had stored 26.15 million square meters of land, corresponding goods value of 450 billion yuan, and land storage in Tier 1 and 2 cities accounting for 74%. The company expects a total marketable value of 240 billion yuan in 2020. If it is necessary to achieve the sales target of 140 billion yuan, it will respond to a 60% removal rate. Considering the regional layout structure of the company's land storage and sales performance in the first four months, the company is likely to achieve the original sales target. Financial leverage remains steady, and financing channels remain smooth. Recently, the company completed the issuance of US dollar senior notes with a transaction size of 200 million US dollars due in 2024. The sale price was 99.921% of the principal amount of the note, and the coupon interest rate was 8.35%. Furthermore, in March, the company successfully issued US dollar senior notes due in 2021, with a scale of 200 million US dollars, a coupon interest rate of only 5.60%, and smooth financing channels. As of the end of 2019, the company's net loan amount was 23.36 billion yuan, up 28.9% year on year, and the net debt ratio was 75.2%, a slight increase of 1.2 pct from the end of 2018, remaining steady; the short-term cash debt ratio also increased 1.19 times in 2018 to 1.76 times, with no worries about short-term debt repayment; with the optimization of the debt structure, the company's weighted financing interest rate fell from 7.8% to 7.5%. With the gradual replacement of high-cost financing, we believe that weighted financing costs for companies are expected to drop further in the future. Maintain the company's holdings increase rating. Considering the company's sales situation and land reserves in 2019, it is predicted that the EPS for 2020-2022 will be 0.7, 0.84, and 1.04 yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 6.2, 5.2, and 4.2 times, giving the company a target price of 5.50 HKD. Risk warning: Project carry-over fell short of expectations, and purchase restriction policies were tightened beyond expectations

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