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时代邻里(9928.HK)投资价值分析报告:深耕大湾区 培养公建物业优势

光大證券 ·  May 27, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Rooted in the Greater Bay Area, 22 years of development The company has taken root in the Greater Bay Area and has gradually expanded outward. By the end of 2019, the total contract area including municipal sanitation projects was 58.04 million square meters (284 projects), and the total management area was 46.48 million square meters (229 projects). Executives are experienced in management and have diverse backgrounds in government, real estate, and property. Among them, the general manager worked for the Guangzhou Key Public Construction Project Management Office. Business strategy: Take root in the Greater Bay Area and cultivate the strength of the public construction industry. In 2016-2019, the company's contract area had a compound growth rate of 48%, and the management area had a compound growth rate of 43%; the company's revenue compound growth rate was 43%, and the net profit compound growth rate was 69%. Judging from the expansion strategy, the new related area is basically residential, and the new third area is basically non-residential. Judging from the types of mergers and acquisitions targets, the company focuses on the development of the public construction industry in the non-residential sector. In 2020, the company acquired Guangzhou Haoqing and Guangzhou Yaocheng to enter power supply system property management, further strengthening its strength in public construction. Judging from the growth prospects, with the gradual carry-over of the sales area of Times China, the management area obtained by the company from Times China is expected to increase rapidly. The company has maintained a relatively positive trend in mergers and acquisitions, and as its strength within the region increases, the winning bid rate for future projects is expected to increase, driving the expansion of the scope of non-residential projects. Business sector: Service projects and gross margin are expected to continue to rise. Judging from the revenue structure, the company's property management services account for about 60% of revenue. In 2017-2019, the share of non-owners' value-added service revenue increased from 19% to 25%. In 2016-2019, the compound growth rates of basic services, owners' value-added, non-owners' value-added, and other services were 45%, 26%, 38%, and 90%, respectively. The gross margin of various businesses continued to rise steadily. In 2016-2019, the gross margin of basic properties increased from 18.4% to 25.8%, and the overall gross margin increased from 23.2% to 28.2%. We believe that the company still has room for optimization in outsourcing professional competencies, thus driving a further increase in gross margin. The investment advice company is rooted in the Greater Bay Area, has regional and project density advantages, has unique advantages in the field of public construction, and is developing well. We forecast the company's EPS for 20-22 to be 0.25/0.42/0.63 yuan, which corresponds to 20-22 PE of 31/18/12 times. Taken together, we consider the company's reasonable valuation in 2021 to be 28 times, giving the company a target price of HK$13.12. Due to the increase in the delivery area of the company's related parties and their insistence on mergers and acquisitions in segmented fields, their strength continued to improve, and coverage was given a “buy” rating for the first time. Risk warning: risk of rapid rise in labor costs; risk of uncertainty in the expansion of value-added services; risk of dependency on related parties; risk of outsourcing quality.

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