This report is read as follows:
Volume and prices rose in 2019 and the performance increased significantly; 2020Q1 electricity increased, but due to the slight decline in the performance of rising coal prices, profits are expected to continue to improve for the whole of 2020.
Main points of investment:
Investment suggestion: comprehensively consider the change of electricity price, increase 2020 eps in 2021, increase the forecast of eps in 2022 to 0.270.29max 0.31 yuan (before the adjustment, it is 0.24max 0.26 yuan in 2021, respectively). Considering that the company still has units under construction and has certain growth, it will give the company 15 times higher than the industry average PE in 2020, maintain the target price of 4.13 yuan, and maintain "holding increase".
Event: the company released its annual report in 2019 and quarterly report in 20120. the operating income in 2019 was 18.438 billion yuan, an increase of 27.13% over the same period last year, and the net profit was 1.362 billion yuan, an increase of 54.75%, an increase of 54.75%, an increase of 16.53% over the same period last year, and a decrease of 0.13% over the same period last year. 2020Q1's performance was slightly lower than expected.
Both volume and price have risen, and the performance has increased significantly in 2019. 1) both volume and price at the revenue end: with the commissioning of power generation in Xilingol and Shiyan in 2019, the company's installed capacity further increased, while the company's utilization of hours increased year on year, so the company completed 69.422 billion kilowatt-hours of electricity generation in 2019, an increase of 23.22% over the same period last year. At the same time, benefiting from the adjustment of the value-added tax rate (16% to 13%), the electricity price excluding tax in 2019 was 269.04 yuan per megawatt hour, an increase of 5.92% over the same period last year. Both volume and price rose, and the company's revenue increased by 27.13% compared with the same period last year. 2) the price of cost-end coal decreased: the unit price of standard coal entering the plant in 2019 was 403.07 yuan / ton, down 0.61% from the same period last year. Electricity prices rose and coal prices fell, electricity business gross profit margin rose 6.1 percentage points year-on-year to 17.21%, power business gross profit increased, driving 2019 return net profit increased by 54.75% year-on-year.
2020Q1 performance fell slightly due to the rise in coal prices and is expected to continue to improve throughout the year. 2020Q1 benefited from the commissioning of new units, electricity increased by 7.8% year-on-year, while the unit price of electricity sold increased by 3.98% year-on-year, but Q1 performance dropped slightly due to the rise in coal prices in the first quarter (Q1 entered the standard coal price of 427.14 yuan / ton, up 5.17% from the same period last year). We expect that the increase in Q1 coal price is related to the tight coal supply in Inner Mongolia. Throughout the year, the coal price center will move further downward in 2020. It is expected that the company will benefit from the commissioning of new units and downward coal prices, and its profits will continue to improve in 2020.
Risk factors: electricity demand falls short of expectations and coal prices rise faster than expected