share_log

凯撒旅业(000796):疫情冲击主业 加码产业链要素布局

國泰君安 ·  May 2, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Key investment points: The performance is in line with expectations. Expanding the industrial chain layout will benefit from the major development of tourism in Hainan and increase wealth. Considering the impact of the epidemic, the company lowered the 2020 EPS to -0.20 yuan (-0.42), maintained the 2021 EPS of 0.24 yuan, and added the 2022 EPS of 0.32 yuan, giving 2021 43x PE higher than the industry average, and raising the target price to 10.32 yuan. Performance summary: In 2019, we achieved revenue of 6.035 billion/ -26.21%, net profit of 126 million yuan/ -35.28%, and deducted non-net profit of 73.655 million/ -57.28%. 2020Q1 achieved revenue of 748 million/ -41.63%, net profit to mother of 64.22 million; deducted non-net profit from mother of 68.36 million. Industry fluctuations in 2019 compounded changes in company control. The business strategy was conservative, and the impact of the 2020Q1 pandemic was significant. ① The intensification of industry competition in 2019 was compounded by changes in company control. The company adopted a steady development strategy. The company's main business revenue and scale slowed down. Travel business revenue -29.83%, service 10.06 million visits/ -14%, and travel service business gross margin +2.2 pct, of which retail business -0.52 pct and corporate awards -3.33 pct; ② Under the impact of the epidemic, the company's sales expenses were drastically reduced year on year, but the rigidity of management expenses was relatively high, and there was limited room for compression; ③ The company believes that due to the pandemic factors, net mother profit loss was reduced from January to June 2020 A loss of 125 million yuan to 75 million yuan. After becoming the actual controller, the founder team expanded industrial chain layout opportunities based on the main tourism service business. Recently, based on its own resource capacity endowment advantages in Hainan, it has successively introduced a series of strategic shareholders such as CCIC Huawen, the Sanya Municipal State-owned Assets Administration Commission, and Jingdong, and cooperated with China Export Service to try to participate in the rapidly developing duty-free market in Hainan and the whole country. As the release of the Hainan policy approaches, there has been a lot of catalysts recently. Risk warning: The risk of the continued spread of overseas epidemics and the risk of outbound passenger flows due to turbulent international relations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


The above content is for informational or educational purposes only and does not constitute any investment advice related to Futu. Although we strive to ensure the truthfulness, accuracy, and originality of all such content, we cannot guarantee it.
    Write a comment