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国泰君安国际(1788.HK):成本优势护航融资类业务 差异化策略助推财富管理

興業證券 ·  May 12, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points covered the “prudent increase” rating for the first time. The target price was HK$1.26: the company adopted a more prudent margin business policy than the market in terms of scale control, loan structure optimization, and risk provision calculation, and loan business adjustments were basically completed. We expect the company's revenue to increase by 1.5/11.4/10.1% year on year in 2020-2022; net profit attributable to shareholders will increase by 14.2/15.8/11.3% year on year, respectively. In 2020-2022, the company's target price corresponding to PB levels was 0.8, 0.8, and 0.7 times, respectively. The target price increased by about 25.6% from the current price. Investors are advised to pay attention. Risk control-based ratings are leading, and capital cost advantages are obvious: the company has long-term “investment grade” credit ratings from Moody's Baa2 and Standard & Poor's BBB+, leading most peers. The share of the company's overall loan business in revenue fell to 26.7% (-16.6pct) in 2019. The company's financing channels are unobstructed. Secured repurchase agreements and bond financing are the main financing methods, and comprehensive financing costs (about 2.1%) are lower than the market average (about 3%). The investment banking business gradually established a leading position in the market: in 2019, Asia (excluding Japan) ranked fourth and second in the industry in terms of underwriting amount and volume of high-yield bonds, respectively; the stock capital market business completed the transformation from underwriting by small to medium to large companies (the share of companies acting as lead underwriters with a market value of HK$5 billion or more rose from less than 20% in 2017 to 42% in 2019). The institutional financing business has entered a period of rapid development: the products provided by the company mainly include participation notes, income swaps, leveraged notes, cash gain notes, options and other derivatives. In 2019, revenue from financial products, investment and market making was HK$1.73 billion, a sharp increase of 165.9% over the previous year, of which 38.4% came from investment, 37.5% from market making, and 24.1% from financial products. The wealth management business has become the next growth point: differentiated customer positioning strategies, lowering the high net worth threshold to HK$8 million (more than 3 million US dollars for foreign investment), greatly increasing the number of professional investors and clients' custodian assets; deeply collaborating with investment banking departments to provide customers with high-quality Chinese dollar bond investment targets; continuing to increase the construction of digital platforms, which support 8 important securities markets and more than 20 global futures and options markets; in 2019, it became the first Chinese brokerage firm to better meet the increasing cross-border investment and business of investors demand. Risk warning: 1) Wealth management business development falls short of expectations; 2) Investment banking business transformation results fall short of expectations; 3) Market downturn affects investment returns; 4) Company operating risks.

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