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崇达技术(002815):一季度收入稳增 2020年有望受益5G放量

海通證券 ·  May 4, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Chongda Technology released its 2019 annual report and 2020 quarterly report: in 2019, it achieved operating income of 3.73 billion yuan, an increase of about 1.95% year on year; realized net profit to mother of 530 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 6.16%. In the first quarter of 2020, we achieved operating income of 930,000 yuan, an increase of about 2.94% year on year, and realized net profit to mother of 130 million yuan, an increase of 1.61% year on year. Revenue growth has resumed, and the major customer strategy continues to advance. Beginning in Q4 2019, the company's revenue began to resume year-on-year growth, while net profit to mother continued to grow positively for two quarters. In 2019, in order to ease the uncertainty of global trade relationships and increase the development and introduction of high-quality domestic customers, the company is expected to gradually release batch orders from such customers. At the same time, the share of domestic market revenue in 2019 increased by 3.5 percentage points compared to 2018. 2020 is expected to benefit from 5G construction. In order to more keenly seize market opportunities, the company further subdivided the organizational structure of the sales department into eight major industry groups, including communication electronics groups, server & optical module groups, and mobile phone groups. In 2019, the company's communications equipment business accounted for 35% of the total industry revenue. The main cooperative customers include ZTE, Fiberfire Communications, and Putian. As 5G construction continues to advance in 2020, we believe that Chongda Technology is expected to usher in a significant increase in revenue from 5G-related products. The boom in the PCB industry has been less affected by the epidemic. According to a report on CPCA's official website, the overall resumption of work and production in the national electronic circuit industry continued to improve in 2020. At the same time, large enterprises were full of orders in March and April, and some companies were in short supply. CPCA expects this good trend to continue until June. Currently, popular orders mainly come from the 5G communications, server, and automotive industries. We believe that Zongda Technology's revenue and net profit are expected to continue to improve month-on-month in the second quarter. Maintain an “better than the market” rating. We have updated the company's profit forecast, and refer to Schedule 2 for major changes in assumptions. The company's revenue for 2020-2022 is estimated to be $4,549 billion (+22.1%), $5.719 billion (+25.7%), and $7.197 billion (+25.8%); net profit due to mother is $695 million (+32.1%), $839 million (+20.7%), and $1,072 million (+27.8%) respectively; corresponding EPS is $0.79, $0.95, and $1.21, respectively; based on the closing price on April 30, the 2020-2022 PE valuation is 22.55 times, 18.68 times, and 14.62 times; according to comparable company valuation tables, we gave the company 33-38 times PE in 2020, with a corresponding reasonable value range of 25.94 yuan to 29.87 yuan, maintaining the “superior to the market” rating. Risk warning: market competition risk, epitaxial merger and acquisition integration risk.

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