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华夏幸福(600340):土储布局良好 现金流状况持续改善

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 29, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Key investment points: The company disclosed its 2019 annual report and 2020 quarterly report, and the performance growth rate was in line with expectations. In 2019, the company's main business grew steadily and rapidly, achieving operating income of 105.21 billion yuan, an increase of 25.6% over the same period of the previous year; net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 14.61 billion yuan, an increase of 24.4% over the same period of the previous year. The operating income of 2020Q1 was 19.52 billion yuan, up 89.6% year on year, and net profit was 2.89 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -2.6%. The company's sales are steady and repayment is good. In 2019, the company achieved sales of 143.17 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 12.0%. Among them, the settlement revenue of the New Industrial City Business Park was 36.84 billion yuan, the contract sales volume of the park's supporting housing business was 102.94 billion yuan, and sales of other businesses (property and hotels) were 3.4 billion yuan. The company's contracted sales area totaled 11.842 million square meters, a year-on-year decrease of 21.2%. The company paid close attention to business management and actively paid back. The company received 87.93 billion yuan in cash for the provision of labor services from sales products throughout the year, an increase of 17.1% over the previous year. The cash inflow from operating activities was 94.38 billion yuan, an increase of 17.9% over the previous year. Sales payback continued to increase, and the sales payback rate increased significantly. Improved financial indicators. The company's financing balance in 2019 was 179.22 billion yuan, with an average financing cost of 7.9%. Among them, the cost of issuing corporate bonds was reduced to 5.5% from 8.3% in 2018. At present, the company has not used a credit line of 267.68 billion yuan. The financial situation has improved markedly, and the operating and fund-raising cash flows are positive. The company's monetary capital was 42.96 billion yuan, 0.7 times the short-term loans and non-current liabilities maturing within one year; the company's balance ratio was 83.9%, down 2.8 percentage points from the previous year. Accelerate implementation of the three new strategies of “new models, new fields, and new regions.” In 2019, the company added 545 new enterprises to enter the park in various industrial parks, with an additional contracted investment of 195.61 billion yuan, an increase of 17.8% over the previous year. Of these, 115 new enterprises were admitted in the Huanjing region, with an additional contracted investment of 33.74 billion yuan, an increase of 32.8% over the previous year; 430 new enterprises from regions outside Beijing were added, with an additional contracted investment of 161.87 billion yuan, an increase of 15.1% over the previous year. The company's industrial service revenue during the reporting period was 27.41 billion yuan, including 5.51 billion yuan in industrial service revenue around Beijing and 218.01 billion yuan in industrial service revenue in regions outside Beijing, an increase of 73% over the previous year. A team of professional managers has been set up and is actively exploring new fields of real estate. In terms of new fields, in addition to the main business areas of the new traditional industrial city, the company actively explores and lays out related fields including commercial complexes, public housing, health care, scientific communities, etc., delisted the company's Wuhan Yangtze River Central Complex project, laid out urban renewal projects such as Bilingding, Pingshan District, Shenzhen, and continued to promote public housing and health care projects. In terms of new regions, during the reporting period, it entered the core circle of the Beijing and Central China regions through the two major benchmark projects of Beijing's Lize and Wuhan Yangtze River Center, opening up the company's new business layout within the core metropolitan area. Investment advice: maintain an increase in holdings rating, lower the profit forecast for 2020-21, and add a forecast for 2022. The company has received safe support on the financing side, and the unique business model of the new industrial city is expected to continue to contribute to high performance growth. With the addition of the executive team, the company's exploration of new growth possibilities in commercial real estate and other fields is expected to obtain new growth possibilities and maintain an increase rating. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 181.7/210.6/246.1 billion yuan in 2020-22 (originally estimated at 205/27.2 billion yuan in 2020-21), with a year-on-year growth rate of 24.4%/15.9%/16.8%. The corresponding EPS is 6.03/6.99/8.17 yuan. The current price corresponding to PE is 3.8/3.3/2.8X.

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