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万通地产(600246):业绩如期释放 轻资产转型 持续回购彰显信心

中泰證券 ·  Apr 30, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Events: On April 29, the company released its 2019 annual report and 2020 quarterly report: 1) The company achieved operating income of 1.13 billion yuan in 2019, -69.74%; net profit of 605 million yuan, +84.79%; plans to distribute cash dividends of 0.60 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares; 2) the company achieved operating income of 219 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020, -8.91%; net profit of 2,0454 million, +110.83% year-on-year. Revenue decreased due to reduced project carry-over, and increased investment income drove higher performance 1) Due to a decrease in the number of projects of the company's subsidiaries that reached carry-over revenue in the current period compared to the same period last year, the company's 2019 revenue was 1.13 billion yuan, -69.74% year-on-year. 2) In addition to the main business, the main factors affecting the company's profit include: during the reporting period, the company transferred shares of companies such as Zhengqi Shangcheng and Zhengqi Shangxin held by the company to GH Investment 1 Limited and generated investment income of 375 million yuan from the sale of 70% of the shares of the wholly-owned subsidiary Xianghe Wantong. At the same time, during the reporting period, the company calculated 229 million yuan in goodwill impairment and 217 million in inventory price reduction preparations; in addition, the company's minority shareholders' equity share declined, and the company achieved net profit from its parent in 2019 605 million, +84.79% over the same period last year. Development business: High quality stock land storage guarantee, stable release of performance during the transition period 1) The company achieved a sales area of 33,800 square meters in 2019, with a contract sales amount of 827 million yuan. 2) As of the end of the reporting period, out of the company's 13 sales projects, the unsold area was 194,300 square meters, with a saleable value of about 4.76 billion square meters based on the average sales price of 24,500 per square meter in 2019; 3) The company still holds the remaining 30% of Xianghe Wantong's shares. According to the company's announcement, measured at fair value, it is expected that investment income of about 230 million yuan will be confirmed later. Commercial real estate: With core office resources, rent growth can be expected. The company's office buildings are located in the core area of Tier 1 and 2 cities: Beijing Wantong Center is located in the Guomao CBD area, Shanghai Wantong Center is located in the core area of the Hongqiao Business District, and Tianjin Wantong Center is located in the financial center of Heping District of Tianjin. It has now formed a standardized, mature grade A office building operating brand called “Wantong Center”. In 2019, the company achieved rental income of 254 million yuan, +9.55% over the same period last year. Considering that supply and demand for office buildings in Beijing and Shanghai tend to balance, rental income is expected to grow steadily, and there is room for the company's office occupancy rate in Shanghai and Tianjin to continue to increase, the company's self-owned property revenue is expected to maintain steady growth in the future. Financial health promotes transformation and upgrading, and continuous repurchases demonstrate confidence 1) The company's interest-bearing liabilities have declined markedly since 2016, and the balance ratio has also declined year by year. As of the end of the reporting period, out of the company's 2,393 billion interest-bearing debt, the interest-bearing debt maturing within one year was only 115 million, and the book monetary capital reached 2,405 billion. The monetary capital was sufficient, and the burden of subsequent transformation was small. 2) On December 27, 2019, the board of directors of the company deliberated and approved the share repurchase plan to repurchase 250-500 million yuan of company shares. As of March 31, 2020, the repurchase payment amount had been 86.576 million yuan; on April 21, the board of directors deliberated and passed a bill to adjust the maximum price for repurchase shares, raising the maximum purchase price from 6.58 yuan/share to 9.76 yuan/share, fully demonstrating the company's management's confidence in transformation and development. Investment suggestions: The company's completed real estate projects have sufficient value and can continue to release profits in the future; rental income from owned properties is growing steadily; the balance and liability structure continues to be optimized, and there is sufficient cash on hand; at the same time, it continues to buy back the company's shares, demonstrating confidence in future transformation. The company's 2020-2022 EPS is expected to be 0.34 yuan, 0.38 yuan, and 0.41 yuan respectively. The current stock prices corresponding to the 2020-2022 PE are 23.16X, 20.97X, and 19.37X, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The company's transformation fell short of expectations, and the company's real estate project sales and settlement fell short of expectations.

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