In 1919, the revenue increased by 1.7%, and the controller plans to be changed to Jingdezhen SASAC. The company will achieve 701 million yuan in revenue in 2019 / yoy+1.7%, return net profit 0.78 billion yuan / yoy-15.63%, revenue basically in line with our expectations (19 years expected 732 million yuan) The decline in performance was mainly due to an increase in accounts receivable and a higher-than-expected provision for bad debts (9.259 million yuan affected by credit impairment losses) 20Q1 realized revenue of 089 million yuan / yoy-35.55%, return net profit of 0.19 billion yuan / yoy+29.74%. The original controlling shareholder of the company intends to agree to transfer 29.99% of the shares to Tao Wentu Group, and the actual controller will be changed to Jingdezhen SASAC. The company is expected to maintain the "overweight" rating by continuously expanding the scale of each business and considering the epidemic or affecting the delivery pace of orders, and the profit forecast is expected to be RMB EPS0.28/0.33/0.38 in 2022 (RMB 0.39x0.47 before 20-21).
The company accelerated the layout of intelligent warehousing business, automation system integration revenue continued to increase in 2019 to achieve automation system integration business income of 365 million yuan / yoy+5.05%, accounted for the overall revenue of 52.49%/yoy+1.70 pct, the gross profit margin of this business 33.85%/yoy+0.21 pct. At the end of 2019, the balance of accounts receivable increased by 95 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the increase was mainly due to the fact that 10% of the quality deposit in the automation integration business was included in the accounts receivable, and the increase in the scale of the business led to an increase in the scale of accounts receivable. The warranty period is 1-2 years, which is consistent with the age distribution of accounts receivable.
The company has plenty of orders on hand, and the epidemic affects the rhythm of short-term delivery.
20Q1 realized revenue of 089 million yuan / yoy-35.55% and net profit of 0.19 billion yuan / yoy+29.74%. The decline in revenue compared with the same period last year is mainly due to the delayed resumption of work by customers affected by the epidemic, which affects the progress of installation and delivery. The growth rate on the income side is significantly lower than that on the performance side: 1) strengthening the repayment, the provision for bad debts increased by 4.61 million yuan compared with the same period last year; 2) the fair value change of NordLogistics (834703) increased by 8.8 million. The company has plenty of orders on hand, and the newly signed order of 20Q1 is 270 million yuan / yoy+76%.
The change of real controller is expected to play a coordinated role and expand the space for long-term growth.
According to the announcement on March 4, the controlling shareholder, Shenghe Investment and the concerted actor, Shanghai Beishi agreed to transfer 29.99% of its shares to Tao Wen Travel Group. After the transfer, the actual controller was changed to Jingdezhen SASAC. As of April 30, the programme has yet to be reviewed and implemented by the State Administration of Market Supervision and Administration. We judge that the effective coordination in business will be as follows: 1) the company is expected to focus on the logistics intelligent construction needs of the real-control ceramic industry, strive for more business orders; 2) the company is expected to rely on Tao Wen Brigade tea garden, cold chain of agricultural products to carry out warehousing operations; 3) the shareholder background of the local SASAC is conducive to the acquisition of new orders.
The epidemic does not change the logic of long-term growth, and maintains the rating of "increasing holdings".
With the new capacity gradually put into production, the company is expected to overcome the capacity bottleneck, and the business layout is becoming more and more perfect. We estimate that the net return profit of the company for 20-22 years is 0.85 EPS 1.00 pm 115 million yuan (before 20-21 year value is 1.17 pm 140 million yuan), and the 20-year net return profit for the company is 0.33 pound 0.38 yuan (20-21 year ago value 0.39 pm 0.47 yuan), corresponding to PE 30x/26x/23x. With reference to the 20-year average PE valuation of similar comparable companies, and considering that the proportion of the company's automation integration business continues to increase, it is expected to improve product profitability, and the change of the real controller to the state-owned background is more conducive to business development, while considering the synergy effect, it is given a 20-year 32-35 times PE valuation with a target price of 9.08-9.93 yuan (the previous value is 7.78-8.95 yuan) and a "holding" rating.
Risk tips: macroeconomic growth is lower than expected, capacity expansion is slower than expected, industry competition intensifies, raw material prices fluctuate, order confirmation rhythm fluctuates, and real controller business coordination is less than expected.