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华夏幸福(600340)2018年年报点评:产业新城回款改善 业务模式再获验证

國信證券 ·  Apr 30, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The repayment rate of the new industrial city increased at a low level, and platformization was further advanced. In 2019, the company's new industrial city business achieved revenue of 36.8 billion yuan, +19% over the same period. The growth rate increased. Accounts receivable at the end of the period were 46.9 billion yuan, +36% over the same period, and the growth rate decreased by 46 pcts. We estimate that the repayment amount for the company's new industrial city in 2019 was about 22.4 billion yuan, with a corresponding repayment rate of 64%, an increase of 16 pcts compared to the 2018 low, which is close to the 2017 level. Of the 79 new industrial cities that the company has launched, net cash flow has been corrected in 22. At the same time, the land area taken by other developers in the company's new industrial city increased by 58% over the same period last year, and the platform-based development of the new industrial city was further advanced. Land acquisition increased and repayments improved. Real estate business savings momentum was affected by insufficient sales and regional market layout. The company's real estate business achieved sales of 106.3 billion yuan, -19% over the same period last year. There are two things worth paying attention to: First, the company's repayment rate has increased. We estimate that the repayment amount for the real estate business is 65.5 billion yuan, +7.6% compared to the same period, with a repayment rate of 64%, an increase of 7pct; second, the enthusiasm for land acquisition has increased. In 2019, the amount of land acquisition in Peacock City was 181 billion yuan, +70% compared to the same period, with a corresponding value of 58.2 billion yuan, +70% over the same period last year, saving momentum for the real estate business. The regional distribution is more balanced. Commercial real estate supplements the core of the metropolitan area. In 2019, the company's revenue in Huanjing was 58 billion yuan, accounting for 55%, down 14 pcts from the previous year, and gross profit was 23.5 billion yuan, accounting for 51%, down 9 pcts from the previous year. In terms of land acquisition, the company's share of land acquisition in Huanjing in 2019 was 41%, and the regional distribution was more balanced. At the same time, the company's commercial real estate business filled the company's “gap” in the core of the metropolitan area, and the strategic layout was more complete. Results will be released steadily. We expect the new industrial city to contribute to increasing the company's 2019 revenue of 105.1 billion yuan, +26% year over year, net profit to mother of 14.6 billion yuan, +24% year on year, and stable release of performance. New industrial cities accounted for 33% of revenue, a year-on-year decrease of 2 pcts. As more and more new industrial cities enter the investment and implementation period, new industrial cities are expected to contribute more performance. Risk warning: Inbound investment was affected by macroeconomics and exceeded expectations; repayment improvements fell short of expectations. Investment advice: Maintaining an increase in the repayment rate of the “buy” rating industry, strongly responding to market concerns about the company's unique model, and is expected to bring about a valuation repair. The company's land storage has been improved, the distribution is more balanced, and the real estate business is stable and far-reaching. Asset-light commercial exports are expected to bring steady cash flow and maintain a “buy” rating.

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