Main points of investment:
1. Event
The company released its annual report in 2019. During the reporting period, the company realized operating income of 47.645 billion yuan, an increase of 19.90% over the same period last year; the net profit of the company attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 2.758 billion yuan, down 12.90% from the same period last year; after deducting the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies, it was 2.625 billion yuan, down 6.47% from the same period last year; the company's basic earnings per share was 0.94 yuan, down 11.4% from the same period last year.
two。 Our analysis and judgment
(1) the increase in the profit and loss share of minority shareholders leads to a decline in performance
In 2019, the company achieved an operating income of 47.645 billion yuan, an increase of 19.90% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 2.758 billion yuan, a decrease of 12.90% over the same period last year. The main reasons for the revenue growth and the decline in performance are: 1) due to the increase in the settlement of cooperative projects, the minority shareholders' equity increased by 252.14%, the share increased from 20.22% to 51.08%; 2) the investment income was-91.31% compared with the same period last year. The company's profitability improved, with a gross profit margin of 37.34%, an increase of 4.76 percentage points over the same period last year, and a net profit margin of 11.83%, an increase of 1.8 percentage points over the same period last year. The three-fee rate was 10.6%, a decrease of 0.2% over the previous year, mainly due to the reduction of 0.06% and 0.82% respectively in the rate of sales expenses and management expenses. By the end of the reporting period, the amount of accounts received in advance was 63.144 billion yuan, covering 1.3 times the revenue of the same period, providing a strong guarantee for future performance.
(2) sales have successfully completed the annual plan, and the completion of the project has been accelerated.
During the reporting period, the company realized sales of 101.344 billion yuan, an increase of 0.61% over the same period last year, and completed the annual plan of 100.3% (101 billion yuan of planned sales for the whole year). The company achieved a contracted area of 4.415 million square meters, an increase of 8.99% over the same period last year, and completed the annual plan of 115.1%. Among them, the sales area of projects in Beijing is 1.4571 million square meters, accounting for 35%, and the sales area of projects outside Beijing is 2.6579 million square meters, accounting for 65%. During the reporting period, the newly started, resumed and completed areas of the company's rights and interests were 286.09, 1130.50 and 3.351 million square meters respectively, an increase of 13.45%, 5.72% and 37.64% respectively over the previous year. During the reporting period, the company added 16 new land and an additional planned capacity area of 2.605 million square meters through independent development, equity acquisition or joint acquisition of land.
(3) the level of leverage has increased slightly and the financing channels have been diversified.
By the end of the reporting period, the company held 25.245 billion yuan in monetary funds, and the coverage ratio of monetary funds (short-term loans + non-current liabilities due within one year) was 0.98%. The company's asset-liability ratio was 80.92%, down 0.66% from the same period last year, and the net debt ratio was 169.82%, an increase of 4.49% over the same period last year. The company has diversified financing channels, with a cumulative increase of about 49.336 billion yuan during the reporting period, mainly bank loans, trust loans and medium-term bills, accounting for 43.06%, 25.11% and 13.17%, respectively. and accompanied by debt financing plans, corporate bonds, short-term bills and ultra-short-term bills and other financing methods, the company repaid a total of 45.747 billion yuan in various types of financing, with a net financing scale of 4.587 billion yuan in the current period. The company has maintained an AAA corporate body rating for many years, with an overall average financing cost of 5.49%, up 13 basis points from the end of last year and still at a low level in the industry.
3. Investment suggestion
The company ploughs the Beijing market and actively expands outside Beijing. The soil reserves are mainly distributed in the first and second lines, with excellent structure and sound sales.
We expect the company's earnings per share in 2020 and 2021 to be 1.18,1.47 yuan respectively. Based on the closing price of 7.03 yuan on April 16, the corresponding dynamic price-to-earnings ratio is 5.96 and 4.78 times respectively, which is lower than the industry average and is attractive. We maintain the "recommendation".
Rating.
4. Risk hint
The risk of policy regulation and control, the risk of a sharp fall in house prices, and so on.