Pharmaceutical enterprises dominated by characteristic chemical drugs have achieved steady growth in overall performance. The company is a well-known enterprise in the domestic chemical preparation industry, in a leading position in a number of product market segments. The leading products cover important areas such as parenteral nutrition drugs, anti-infective drugs and digestive system drugs (the three major areas contribute about 90% of the company's performance). From 2015 to 2019, the company achieved a compound growth rate of 24.32% in revenue and 6.13% in profit. The growth rate is relatively stable. It is expected that with the improvement of the company's sales layout and the enrichment of R & D pipelines, the performance is expected to accelerate growth.
High gross margin varieties are launched, and the market space is broad. In the fields of cardio-cerebrovascular, liver disease and hypertension, the company actively promotes new varieties of high gross profit, such as Huperzine A for injection, nicergoline for injection, acetylcysteine for injection, labetalol hydrochloride for injection, etc. (including stock variety re-promotion). Among them, Huperzine A for injection is expected to exceed 30 billion yuan in the future market space, which is expected to inject new kinetic energy into the company.
The echelon of products is gradually formed, and "self-research + cooperation" strengthens the product layout. At present, the company focuses on leading, exclusive, technical barriers or policy barriers, and the research project covers anti-tumor drugs, liver disease drugs, nutrition drugs, cardio-cerebrovascular drugs, digestive system drugs and other major diseases. 109 varieties and 191 drug production approval documents have been obtained. Drugs such as lansoprazole for injection, levocarnitine injection, mezlocillin sodium and sulbactam sodium for injection, flucloxacillin sodium for injection, piperacillin sodium sulbactam sodium for injection, cefazoxime sodium for injection and ambroxol hydrochloride injection are expected to be on the market in 2020. In addition, the company actively carries out external cooperation, including but not limited to authorized introduction (License-in) of domestic and foreign varieties, direct acquisition of investment mergers and acquisitions and other ways to expand the company's product pipeline, the creation of new drugs in related fields is expected to enhance the growth space.
The coordinated development of "chemical preparation + API + medical service" fully distributes the upper and lower reaches of the industrial chain. The company speeds up the endogenous development of chemical preparation business and cuts into other products or areas that are obviously complementary and differentiated to the existing product chain by means of investment and mergers and acquisitions. In the upper reaches of the industrial chain, the distribution of APIs through investment and mergers and acquisitions to create an integrated strategy of "raw materials + preparations". In the aspect of horizontal integration of the industrial chain, the main goal is the company with obvious complementarity and differentiation with the company's existing product chain; in the lower reaches of the industrial chain, the company and its controlling shareholders have laid out the medical service plate through Huaxi Shangjinanfu Hospital and Hainan Boao Super Hospital. The company will build "pharmaceutical manufacturing + medical services" on the basis of existing reserve hospitals.
The leading company in the industry.
Profit forecast and investment rating. It is estimated that the net profit of homing from 2020 to 2022 is 2.49 yuan and 331 million yuan, respectively, with a growth rate of 23.6%, 16.0% and 14.5%, respectively, and the current stock price corresponds to 2020-2022 PE 22 19x17X. We believe that the company has maintained steady growth in its main chemical preparations and has rich product pipelines. at present, a variety of new products with high gross margins are being gradually promoted, and a number of varieties under research are expected to be on the market this year. In addition, the company actively distributes the field of API and medical services, which has become an important potential growth point for the company. Coverage for the first time, giving a "overweight" rating.
Risk hint. The risk of failure in R & D of products under development; the fluctuation of income caused by market competition; the risk of change in pharmaceutical policy; the promotion of new products is not as expected.
