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天能重工(300569):塔筒量价齐升 电站规模持续增长

Tianneng heavy Industry (300569): the scale of Qisheng power station continues to grow.

華金證券 ·  Apr 30, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Main points of investment

Event: the company released its annual report in 2019 and quarterly report in 2020, with revenue of 2.46 billion yuan in 2019, an increase of 77% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 270 million yuan, an increase of 163% over the same period last year. In 2020, Q1 achieved revenue of 330 million yuan, down 9% from the same period last year, and its net profit was 30 million yuan, an increase of 10% over the same period last year.

The volume and price of the tower tube business rose, and the number of orders on hand increased. In 2019, the revenue of the tower tube reached 2.25 billion yuan, an increase of 74% over the same period last year. The gross profit margin was 24.5%, an increase of 4.5pct over the same period last year. Sales of tower cylinders were 286000 tons, an increase of 63 percent over the same period last year, with an average price per ton of 7854 yuan / ton, an increase of 478 yuan / ton over the same period last year, an average cost of 5933 yuan / ton, an increase of 32 yuan / ton over the same period last year, and a gross profit of 1921 yuan per ton, an increase of 446 yuan / ton over the same period last year. By the end of 2019, the company had orders on hand of about 3.51 billion yuan, about 70% of the same period last year.

The scale of the hand power station continues to grow, contributing cash flow to the company. In 2019, the revenue of new energy power generation reached 180 million yuan, an increase of 122% over the same period last year. By the end of 2019, the company held a total 232MW of grid-connected power stations, an increase of 132% over the same period last year. According to the annual report, the hoisting of Texas Phase I 50MW wind farm was completed at the end of 2019 and is expected to be connected to the grid by the end of June 2020. In addition, the company also has a total 190MW wind farm is expected to be connected to the grid by the end of 2020, which is expected to continue to contribute cash flow to the company.

Tower tube shipments declined in the first quarter, and power stations contributed revenue. In 2020, Q1 achieved revenue of 330 million yuan, down 9% from the same period last year, and its net profit was 30 million yuan, an increase of 10% over the same period last year. Of which the revenue from power generation is about 60 million yuan and the net profit is about 20 million yuan. Affected by the epidemic, the company shipped about 31000 tons of towers in the first quarter, a decrease compared with the same period last year. By the end of Q1 in 2020, the company had orders of 4.05 billion yuan, an increase of 540 million yuan over the beginning of the year.

Investment advice: due to the impact of the epidemic, the company's Q1 shipments have declined. In response to the downgrade of the company's profit forecast, it is estimated that the company's operating income from 2020 to 2022 will be 2.68 billion yuan, 2.62 billion yuan and 2.71 billion yuan respectively. The net profit of returning to the mother is 340 million yuan, 370 million yuan and 410 million yuan respectively, maintaining the "buy-A" investment rating.

Risk hint: the confirmation of on-hand orders is not as expected; the price of raw materials falls less than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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