Event: the company disclosed that in the first quarterly report of 2020, the company achieved operating income of 187 million yuan in the first quarter, down 23.10% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 31.1621 million yuan, down 10.20% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 20.1404 million yuan, down 9.27% from the same period last year.
The decrease in income is mainly due to the decrease in bonded trade; the inventory level of ethylene glycol and diethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang was lower as a whole in the first quarter, which affected the liquefied warehousing industry to a certain extent. The 31.99% decline in the company's operating costs in the first quarter of 2020 is mainly due to the decrease in the cost of carrying forward goods sold due to the decrease in revenue from proprietary trade in the current period of bonded trade. We infer that under the decline in chemical prices, the decrease in bonded trade revenue is the main reason for the decrease in the company's revenue in the first quarter. According to the data of Jinlian, the average inventory of diethylene glycol and ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang area was 353,000t / d and 3411000t / d in the first quarter, but both inventory levels were in the process of slow climbing. As the company's ethylene glycol inventory accounts for 65% of the total inventory in East China (it is speculated that it accounts for more than 90% of the total inventory in Zhangjiagang), the company's liquefied warehousing business may be affected to a certain extent in the first quarter, resulting in a decline in profits.
Registered warehouse orders and inventory indicators continue to climb, polyester operating rate increased, it is expected that the main liquefied warehousing industry will gradually rise. According to the latest data, the registered warehouse volume of ethylene glycol in Yangtze River has increased from 50 to 1000; the inventory of ethylene glycol in Zhangjiagang has increased to 700000 tons per day, and the inventory of diethylene glycol is relatively stable.
Intelligent logistics e-commerce platform continues to develop, supply chain financial business can be expected. The company's intelligent logistics e-commerce platform successfully realized the flow in 2019, and the users of the CA system platform moved to the Sujiao network e-commerce platform to actively promote the work; in November 2019, the company successfully connected to the Sujiao network platform with JD.com 's first cooperation project, "Beijing ticket second paste". In addition, the 190 million increase in long-term receivables in the first quarterly report in 2020 is mainly due to customer financial leases receivable by Zhang Bao Tonghui Financial Leasing (Tianjin) Co., Ltd., indicating that the company's supply chain financial business has been officially launched and may enter the harvest period in the future.
Investment suggestion: the company's intelligent logistics e-commerce platform has successfully realized the flow and continues to develop; with the improvement of storage capacity utilization, the main liquefied warehousing industry may come out of the low point of the year. In 2020-2022, the EPS was lowered to 0.10, 0.14, and 0.15 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE was 32.55X/23.28X/20.73X, maintaining the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the realization of traffic is not as expected, and the utilization rate of storage capacity decreases significantly.
