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科森科技(603626):疫情拉动笔电需求 拐点明确进入成长新周期

華西證券 ·  Apr 28, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company released an annual report. Revenue in 2019 was 2.13 billion yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of -11.67%, and net profit loss of 202 million yuan after deducting non-return to mother. The first quarter of 2020 achieved revenue of 464 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 0.85%, and net profit to mother of 13.965 million yuan, a year-on-year growth rate of 6.82%. We believe that Corson's current growth inflection point is clear, and we are firmly optimistic about the company's growth space. Reviewing history, the company's “internal and external difficulties” in the past few years have dragged down performance: the company achieved revenue of 2.13 billion dollars in 19 years, and net profit losses of 202 million yuan after deduction. On the one hand, after its listing, the company invested heavily in capital expenditure to expand production capacity. In 17-18, new fixed assets reached 590 million and 710 million respectively, and depreciation accrued in 2018-2019 reached 294 million and 231 million respectively, and management expense ratios increased dramatically. Meanwhile, the past few years coincided with a slowdown in the growth rate of the 3C industry, an increase in the share of non-metallic materials, and intensive production of metal processing capacity within the industry. Due to the combination of internal and external factors, the company's fixed asset investment growth rate was higher than the revenue growth rate, and the decline in capacity utilization dragged down performance; at the same time, in 2019, the company calculated inventory depreciation of 50.38 million, and the burden was cleared. The quality is excellent, the medical device has proven its strength, tied to Apple's development and growth, and has continued to grow: According to the prospectus, Colson has tested minimally invasive surgical instrument structural components for Medtronic since 2008, and is currently one of Medtronic's 7 strategic suppliers; in '13, the company entered the Apple supply chain through Jeep and gradually gained approval from Apple. The categories involved in Apple gradually increased and continued to grow; according to the 2019 annual report, the company entered the domestic laptop customer supply system in '19, and the room for growth is expected to open up further in the future. Downstream has blossomed more, and the online pandemic has boosted demand for laptops, and the company has fully benefited: with the development of Keson customers and the development of multiple categories, the inflection point signal of the company's performance in 20 years is clear. On the mobile phone side, the pre-sale situation of Apple's new SE is expected to be better than expected, and 2020 is still a definite year for Apple; in addition, demand for online offices is driving sales of laptops and iPads under the pandemic, and the laptop business is expected to exceed expectations, contributing net growth, and the company is certain to benefit. The new management was put in place, and equity incentives were implemented, demonstrating the company's confidence in transformation: new management was in place at the end of '19, and the new general manager came from Apple supplier Herbie International; at the same time, the company's equity incentives were implemented in the first quarter, and incentives for core management and technical personnel were in place. The company's operation and management capabilities and market development are expected to accelerate, and there is strong certainty about the inflection point of profit margins. Looking at the whole year, the inflection point of the company's revenue is clear, and the improvement in capacity utilization and management standards drive strong certainty in profit margin repair. Profit forecast: Maintaining the previous forecast, the company's revenue for 2020-2021 is 31.52 billion, 43.64 billion yuan, and 5.622 billion yuan, respectively, corresponding to net profit attributable to mother of 203, 301, and 402 million yuan. Maintain the company's PE valuation 40 times that of 2020, corresponding to the target price of 17.2 yuan (previous target price 19.20, changes in share capital dilute EPS, corresponding to a reduction in target price), and maintain the purchase rating. Risk warning 1) Risk of fluctuations in the downstream industry; 2) Risk of fluctuations in the company's performance as downstream products are updated; 3) Risk of customer concentration.

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