Main points of investment: the only legal person securities company in Henan Province, AqiH has greatly improved its listing and financing capacity in both places, reformed all aspects of each line, and insisted on a high dividend rate. The reasonable value range is 4.22-4.96 yuan, maintaining the "neutral" rating.
[incident] Zhongyuan Securities achieved operating income of 440 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020,-34% year-on-year; net loss of 67 million yuan, net profit of 182 million yuan in the same period last year; corresponding to EPS-0.02 yuan, ROE-0.70%.
Brokers, investment banks, asset management, interest and self-management account for 44%, 2.5%, 2.5%, 1% and 19% of operating income, respectively.
20Q1 provides for a credit impairment loss of 68 million yuan, compared with 7 million yuan in the same period last year.
The brokerage service is optimized, and the revenue is growing rapidly compared with the same period last year. 2020Q1 achieved 194 million yuan in brokerage income, + 25% year-on-year. The company continues to accelerate the transformation of online and offline integrated wealth management service model, continuously deepen the application of financial technology, speed up the construction of online channel layout and intelligent service system, speed up the integration of information systems, speed up the construction of financial product system, and enhance customers' awareness of the company's products and "Fortune Central Plains" service brand.
Investment banking business and the scale of underwriting declined year-on-year. 2020Q1 realized 11 million yuan in investment banking revenue,-48% from the same period last year.
The underwriting scale of bonds is-21% compared with the same period last year, and the main underwriting scale of bonds is 1.6 billion yuan, of which corporate bonds, local government bonds and corporate bonds are 800 million yuan, 500 million yuan and 300 million yuan respectively. There are 20 IPO reserve projects, 3 motherboards, 2 Science and Technology Innovation Board and 2 gem.
Strengthen risk resolution, asset management business revenue declined compared with the same period last year. 2020Q1 realized asset management income of 11 million yuan,-46% of the same period last year. While strengthening the existing product management and risk resolution, the company's asset management business, combined with the regulatory requirements of the new regulations of asset management and the development trend of the industry, strengthens the formulation and revision of the basic system, the construction of compliance risk control, and the carding of business processes, thus tamping the foundation for the development of asset management business.
Affected by the market, the net income on investment fell sharply. 2020Q1 achieved a net return on investment (including fair value) of 84 million yuan,-75% of the same period last year. In terms of corporate equity transactions, we will carry out investment operations with absolute income as the goal, strengthen macro-industry and variety research, and focus on structured opportunities in the market. Fixed income transactions actively capture market opportunities by improving asset structure, increasing credit research and expanding the proportion of credit bond investment.
[investment suggestion] We estimate that the EPS of the company in 2020-2022E is 0.00,0.03,0.03 yuan respectively, and the net assets per share are 2.48,2.50,2.52 yuan respectively. Considering that the company has always adhered to a high dividend rate, cash dividends have accounted for an average of more than 58% of the net profit of the year in the past three years. Long-term sustained and stable high dividends not only help to enhance the enthusiasm of investors, but also show the management's confidence in the future performance improvement of the company. In addition, Atroph listing, strong financing capacity, capital consumption business is expected to accelerate growth. We give it a slightly higher valuation than the industry, giving it 1.7-2.0x Pmax B in 2020, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 4.22-4.96 yuan, maintaining a "neutral" rating.
Risk hint: the continued downturn in the market leads to a decline in the scale of business, and market supervision is further strengthened.