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奥拓电子(002587)2019年报及20Q1点评:疫情短期影响盈利 金融科技值得期待

國信證券 ·  Apr 29, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Net profit in '19 rose 1.43% year on year, and 20Q1 showed a loss of revenue of 1,245 billion yuan in '19, down 20.86% year on year; net profit was 182 million yuan, up 1.43% year on year. 20Q1 achieved revenue of 138 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 51.13%; net profit of the mother was -108 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 45 million yuan, mainly due to the epidemic, which caused the company to delay the resumption of work, and the profit situation was affected. The fintech sector grew rapidly in 2019, but due to the impact of the pandemic, earnings in 20Q1 declined in 2019. Fintech business revenue in 2019 was 385 million yuan, 31.59% year-on-year; LED display business revenue was about 405 million yuan, up 23.38% year on year. Benefiting from changes in business structure, the company's overall gross margin increased from 33.52% to 44.43%. Among them, the LED display business has a gross profit margin of 57%, and the gross profit margin of intelligent network integration and equipment is 40.92%. 20Q1 gross profit margin was 36.25%, down 9.36 pct from month on month; net profit margin -6.08%, down 15.61 pct month on month. The decline in gross margin was mainly affected by the epidemic. The company's production and operation were affected in the short term, leading to a decline in sales, and various expense rates increased as a result. Among them, the sales expense ratio increased 5.21 pct over the month, the management expense ratio increased 4.64 pct, and the R&D cost rate increased 3.17 pct month over month. Combined with the impact of period expenses, the net interest rate level fell a lot. Ongoing orders are plentiful. In the future, as the global economy stabilizes, it is expected to regain growth momentum. As of the end of March 2020, the company's on-hand orders and winning bid amounts were 925 million yuan, or about 74% of the revenue for the full year of '19, showing that the company has full on-hand orders and that several major LED screen contracts are executed in an orderly manner. As the impact of the epidemic gradually weakens, the global economy recovers, and the government increases fiscal expenditure to support economic recovery, 20Q2 is expected to reduce the adverse effects of the epidemic and regain growth momentum. It is predicted that 20Q2 will increase month-on-month to maintain the “increase in holdings” rating companies to carry out core fintech business development in the future. It is expected that after the epidemic improves, the company's profit level will improve. The company predicts 20H1 net profit of 0.11 to 16 million yuan, and estimates that 20Q2 will reach 114 million yuan, showing a month-on-month improvement. The company expects the company to be 119/176 million yuan in 20-21, with a corresponding valuation of 33/22 times, maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating. Risk warning: LED industry demand falls short of expectations due to the impact of the epidemic; macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations; macroeconomic recovery falls short of expectations

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