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道明光学(002632):车牌膜微棱镜膜齐头并进 铝塑膜量子点膜蓄势待发

東北證券 ·  Apr 27, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  In 2019, the company achieved revenue of 1,392 billion yuan, an increase of 16.23% over the previous year; realized net profit of 198 million yuan, a decrease of 3.50% over the previous year; and realized net profit of 142 million yuan after deducting non-return to the mother, a year-on-year decrease of 17.97%. The year-on-year decline in performance was mainly due to the fact that the performance of Warwick New Materials fell short of expectations, assuming impairment of goodwill by 49.4067 million yuan. License plate films have maintained rapid development, and the development of overseas markets has become a bright spot. License plate films and semi-finished products achieved revenue of 255 million yuan in 2019 (+30.10% year-on-year), with a market share of nearly 30%. On the one hand, the company is increasing the promotion of domestic license plate films, and on the other hand, developing the overseas license plate film market. In 2019, the overseas license plate film business increased by 62% year-on-year. In the future, license plate stamping technology is expected to replace existing ink technology, and technological changes are expected to usher in a round of replacement demand in the license plate market. Microprism films have become the main driver of performance. In 2019, the company's revenue from microprism films and products was 267 million yuan (+46.79% year-on-year). The company is the fourth largest company in the world and the only domestic enterprise that has mastered the production capacity of microprism films. Currently, it is in the early stages of import substitution. The company's market share is only 10%, and there is still plenty of room for replacement. Under the influence of the epidemic, 3M, the main competitor in the industry, has shifted its focus to mask production, and the company is expected to rapidly expand its market share with good service and price advantages. Aluminum-plastic film is poised to go, and we look forward to a breakthrough in power batteries. In 2019, the company's aluminum-plastic film achieved revenue of 51.09 million yuan (+19.65% over the same period). The company's aluminum-plastic film is mainly 3C customers. It signed a cooperation agreement with Tianjin Lishen in 2019 and gradually entered the middle and high-end market. The short-term impact of the epidemic and low fuel prices has put pressure on electric vehicle sales, but the global trend of vehicle electrification has taken shape, and the penetration rate of soft-pack batteries in power batteries continues to increase, so we look forward to the company's breakthrough in the power battery field. Warwick is under pressure in the short term, and the prospects for quantum dot films are promising. Competition in the LCD display industry has intensified, and sales of brightener films reached 201 million in 2019 (-17.55% year-on-year). As Japanese and South Korean companies gradually withdraw from the LCD market, prices in the LCD industry chain are expected to gradually rise, which will drive the profit of Warwick's main product, brightener film, to rise. Quantum dot films are cost constrained and have yet to be profitable. With the gradual promotion of quantum dot television and the reduction in costs driven by the localization of raw materials, quantum dot films will gradually enter a stage of rapid development. 5G is being promoted at an accelerated pace, and there is huge space for PC/PMMA films. The company's 10 million square meter production line has now completed installation and commissioning, and small-batch production is being carried out. It is expected that the 5G mobile phone switching trend will explode along with it. Lower the profit forecast and maintain the buying rating: The profit forecast was lowered due to the pandemic. The company is expected to achieve net profit of 319/3.95/519 million yuan in 2020-2022, corresponding to PE 15/12/9 times, maintaining the “buy” rating. Risk warning: The risk of falling demand, falling product prices, and falling new production capacity falling short of expectations.

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