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枫叶教育(01317.HK):学费收入+13%稳增 冬令营受一次性影响

國金證券 ·  Apr 29, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Tuition income for performance reviews also increased by 13%. The pandemic affected non-tuition income in the short term. On April 28, 2020, Maple Leaf Education issued the FY2020H1 results announcement ending February 29, 2020. The company's FY2020H1 achieved operating income of 792 million yuan/ +6.4% YOY, net profit of 264 million yuan/ -6.1% YOY, and a net interest rate of 33.3% /- 4.4pct. In terms of revenue breakdown, tuition and accommodation income is 712 million yuan/ +12.8% YOY, non-tuition and accommodation income is 80 million yuan/ -29.2% YOY (affected by the epidemic, the company cancelled overseas winter camps originally planned to go out after the Lunar New Year, winter and summer camp revenue is 03 million yuan/ -87.8% YOY, textbook sales revenue is 30 million yuan/ +0.4% YOY, and other revenue is 46 million yuan/ -16.1% YOY). The company's various expense rates remained stable, and the decline in net interest rates was mainly affected by non-operating factors (investment and other income, other income and loss). The number of enrolled students is 41,000, and the expansion of endogenous epitaxial growth has led to an increase in the number of students. As of February 29, 2020, the number of students enrolled in Maple Leaf Education reached 41,000/ +13.8% YOY, mainly due to the increase in the number of students enrolled in existing schools in Ganjingzi, Dalian and Shenzhen and the establishment of new schools in Xiangyang and Jinan. As of February 29, 2020, there were 100 schools, of which 16/26/27/28/3 were high school/middle school/elementary school/kindergarten/schools for foreign children, an increase of 1/3/3/0/0 respectively over the same period last year. Judging from the phased tuition fees, the share of primary and middle school fees continues to increase. FY2020H1 High School/Middle School/Elementary School/ Kindergarten/ Schools with foreign children's tuition fees accounted for 36%/20%/37%/6%/2% of total tuition income, respectively, with year-on-year changes of -4.8/+2.4/+2.0/+0.5/-0.2 pct. The change in income structure is mainly due to the pyramid strategy driving the adjustment of the student structure. There is plenty of cash. As of February 29, 2020, the company's book cash was approximately $2,095 billion, and the company had sufficient cash flow to maintain operations and expansion. Recent developments: The new acquisition of Huangyi joined the group's school network in March 2020; the 2020/2021 academic year plans to continue to establish new schools in Hohhot, Dalian, Tianjin, and Xiangyang, with an estimated total capacity of 6370; plans to expand Wuhan schools to add 1,500 additional student capacity; as of April 2020, nearly 2,300 Maple Leaf High School students have received more than 5,300 university acceptance letters, including 208 students receiving QS top ten university acceptance letters, with remarkable teaching results. Investment advice: We expect Maple Leaf Education to continue to expand healthily in the future, mainly under an asset-light model. After the middle school expansion cycle, it is also expected to usher in a high school expansion cycle. We expect the company's FY20-22 net profit to be 7.35/8.49/956 million yuan respectively, corresponding to PE valuation of about 11x/9x/8x, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risk warning: the impact of the epidemic; policy risks; risks such as expanding enrollment falling short of expectations.

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