Event: the company announced its annual report in 2019 and quarterly report in 2020. Its revenue in 2019 was 1.988 billion yuan / + 21.71%, and its net profit was 282 million yuan. In the same period last year, it lost 456 million yuan due to the impairment of goodwill, deducting 166 million yuan in non-return net profit, and 2.275 billion yuan / + 32.52% net cash flow per share. 2020Q1 achieved revenue of 372 million yuan /-71.51% (including impression creation income of 120 million yuan), deducting non-return net profit of 5751 yuan /-72.23%, mainly due to the settlement of current real estate income.
Comments:
The real estate business focuses on green technology, the core layout of the key city circle, the impression of a smooth transition after the performance commitment period. The company adheres to the strategy of "speeding up the development of the cultural industry, steadily developing the real estate industry, and promoting the coordinated development of the two major industries", and makes clear the development idea of two-way empowerment of green technology real estate and cultural boutique IP. The company's real estate business is small and sophisticated, creating a very influential product system in the industry. at present, the real estate is mainly in Shanghai, Hangzhou and Beijing, and there has been no new land reserve in the past 19 years. Real estate will actively participate in the development and construction of the Yangtze River Delta, Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei and Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macau Greater Bay Area urban agglomerations. At present, the contract debt of 3.3 billion and the remaining 850,000 square development area of Yanjiao lay a good foundation for real estate business. After the smooth completion of the transition after the performance commitment period, he signed a new contract in 2019 and signed a project service contract with Director Zhang Yimou and Director Fan Yue. He also discussed with Director Wang Chaoge on the maintenance and service work of some of the public performance projects and the cooperation of new projects. Under the increase in Shanghai area settlement, the income of real estate projects increased by 27%, the gross profit margin decreased by 3.13pp, the impression income was 7583 million yuan /-3.29%, the gross profit margin decreased by 10.98pp, the net profit was 3798 million yuan / + 5%, and the net interest rate was 50%, which increased 4pp over the same period last year.
The impression brand has a significant advantage, and the company is actively seeking change. The impression has four major performance brand series: "impression", "most recall" and "return". At present, there have been a total of 18 public performance, production and signing projects, including 12 projects in production, 4 in production and 2 contracts. The current profit model of Guan Impressions is "performance creation" + "intellectual property license" + "Operation and Management of Art Troupe" + "shareholders' Rights and interests dividend". Previously, it was mainly based on performance creation, but now it is actively extending to operation and management. certain results have been achieved in the return of the three Gorges project, among which the income from performance production and ticketing are still the core sources of income. Compared with its competitors, Guanwei has a strong brand advantage, but due to the previous light asset operation mode, low control over project operation, and lack of experience in project operation, each project side is difficult to form a unified operation platform, brand image and marketing because of different investments and operators. At the same time, the company's core income depends heavily on one-time creation, and sustainable income depends on each project performance. At present, the growth of traditional projects is weak, and the company is actively seeking changes to increase the proportion of shares in the project and to infiltrate the performance and operation. In addition, in the cultural and tourism industry, the company actively participates in the industrial fund and shares in Viacom, an important strategic partner of Viacom China, to enhance the layout of the cultural and tourism industry and accumulate relevant experience and project reserves.
Profit forecast and investment advice: small real estate business but strong brand, deep ploughing long triangle, Beijing-Tianjin wing, Guangdong, Hong Kong and Macao, high-quality land reserve and low land acquisition cost, high NAV provides the company with a margin of safety. At the same time, after Guan Impressions enters the capital market, the management mechanism and market-oriented operation are expected to be improved, and the speed of new projects after the acquisition is significantly speeded up, and the follow-up combination of weight and coordination with the real estate business is expected; it is estimated that the EPS for 20-22 will be 0.17 EPS 0.19 shock per share, and the closing price on April 27 will be estimated PE to be twice that of 24-22-16, maintaining the rating of "prudent overweight".
Risk tips: business coordination is not as expected, systemic risks in the real estate and cultural industries, cultural tourism expansion and development are not as expected, and corporate governance risks.