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珠海港(000507):投资收益助力公司一季度业绩超预期 看好未来西江流域港航业务发展

華西證券 ·  Apr 28, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Incident Overview On April 27, 2020, the company released its 2020 quarterly report. During the reporting period, the company achieved revenue of 592 million yuan, -3.94% year over year; realized net profit of 115.82 million yuan, +42.72% year over year; net profit after deduction of 9.865 million yuan to mother, +23.84% year over year. Industry data was generally under pressure during the epidemic. The company's revenue declined slightly year-on-year, business diversified development, and investment income increased profits in the first quarter. Affected by the epidemic, port industry data for the first quarter of 2020 was generally under pressure. According to Ministry of Transport data, the national port cargo throughput in the first quarter of 2020 was -4.6%, and the cargo throughput of the Wuzhou inland river port in the Xijiang River Basin was -12.2% year-on-year, or affected by this factor, the company's revenue declined slightly year-on-year during the reporting period. The main reason for the sharp year-on-year increase in the company's net profit to mother during the reporting period was the year-on-year increase in investment income. In the first quarter of 2020, the company achieved investment income of 167.91 million yuan, +131.17% over the same period, accounting for 86.2% of operating profit. Judging from the company's historical data, the investment income for 2017-19 was 0.91/1.17/157 million yuan respectively, accounting for 45%/45%/54% of the company's operating profit, respectively. The revenue mainly comes from investment in energy sectors such as CNOOC's Zhuhai Gas Power and Guangzhu Power Generation. The earnings are relatively stable, and it is expected that they will continue to bring benefits to the company in the future. In terms of expenses, the company's financial expenses, management expenses, and sales expenses for the first quarter of 2020 were 0.24/0.39/0.17 billion yuan, respectively, compared to -17.2%/+5.4%/-5.6% year-on-year respectively. The total three fees were 80 million yuan, accounting for 13.5% of revenue, down 0.1 percentage points from the same period last year. Optimistic about the development of the port and shipping business in the Xijiang River Basin in the context of structural adjustments in the domestic economy, it is expected to become a growth point for the company's performance in the future. In the context of structural adjustments in the domestic economy, regions such as Wuzhou and Guigang in the Xijiang River basin undertook a large number of industrial transfer projects. Projects such as the Mona Lisa Ceramics Tengxian production base and the Wuzhou Jiujiang 10-million-ton steel base will be put into operation in the future, which will bring a large number of logistics needs for commodities such as stone, ore, and steel, and bring development opportunities to the company's port and shipping business and related supply chain businesses. Furthermore, the Grand Tengxia Water Conservancy Hub was put into trial operation on April 1, 2020, and navigation conditions in the Xijiang River Basin are expected to improve further. Under the development opportunities of this industry, the company actively lays out port terminals in the Xijiang River Basin and expands the capacity of its fleet. The future port and shipping business and related supply chain business are expected to become a growth point for the company's performance. Investment advice: Keep the company's profit forecast unchanged for the whole year and maintain the “buy” rating. Based on long-term optimism about the economy of the Xijiang River Basin and the future development of the company's port and shipping business, we maintain the company's profit forecast of 2.32/2.70/287 million yuan for 2020-22, corresponding EPS of 0.25/0.29/0.31 yuan, respectively. According to the closing price of 4.97 yuan/share on April 28, 2020, the corresponding PE was 19.9/17.1/16.1 times, respectively, maintaining a “buy” rating. Risks suggest that the macroeconomic downturn may exceed expectations; the epidemic may last too long; the resumption of work is progressing; participating companies such as Guangzhu Electric Power contribute highly to investment income and profits, and fluctuations in their performance have a great impact on the company's performance.

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