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麦迪科技(603990):解决方案收入高增 拟继续外延辅助生殖业务

國海證券 ·  Apr 27, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Event: Company announcement 2019 Annual Report and 2020 Quarterly Report: In 2019, the company achieved operating income of 333 million yuan, an increase of 17.18% over the previous year; realized net profit of 46.89 million yuan, a decrease of 15.49% over the previous year; and achieved net profit deducted from the mother of 38.99 million yuan, a decrease of 1.42% over the previous year. In the first quarter of 2020, the company achieved revenue of 16.39 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 59.99%; net profit of the mother was 16.42 million yuan, compared to 4.1 million yuan in the same period last year. Key investment points: Overall solution revenue is high, and Queen Mary Hospital's performance promises have been exceeded. The company's main business revenue was split into products. In 2019, the company's self-made software revenue was 171 million yuan, yoy -1.59%; overall solution revenue was 99.04 million yuan, yoy +39.64%; external software and hardware revenue was 17.94 million yuan, yoy -7.82%; operation and maintenance service revenue was 35.31 million yuan, yoy +19.82%. The increase in the company's overall solution revenue is due to the informatization construction of five specialized emergency centers in hospitals above level 2 nationwide, and the acceleration of regional first-aid integration platform construction in various regions. The 2019 Kunshan Regional Integration Platform Project, the Suzhou Health Citizens' “531” Action Plan Informatization Project, and the Jilin Medical Rescue Emergency Command Platform Project are ongoing. Currently, the company's emergency first aid product line is expanding from the specialty direction of smart first aid and emergency care to the direction of regional medical care collaboration, big data mining and application, and specialist quality control. In terms of assisted reproduction business, Hainan Marie Hospital was officially merged in October 2019. Throughout the year, Queen Mary Hospital achieved total revenue of 33.98 million yuan, net profit of 5.91 million yuan, and exceeded the performance commitment of 5.1 million yuan. The company's performance declined sharply in the first quarter of 2020, mainly because the normal operation order of hospitals affected by the epidemic was interrupted, and informatization construction work in hospital operating rooms, intensive care units, and emergency first aid departments stagnated. It is planned to continue to extend the assisted reproduction business and build a new reproductive health ecosystem. Looking at the demand side, the infertility rate in China is 12%-15%, and the number of patients exceeds 50 million. Of these, 20% require artificially assisted reproductive intervention. It is estimated that China's stock potential audience is about 10 million people. Currently, the penetration rate of assisted reproductive technology in China is only 7%, far lower than 30% in the US, and the long-term market space for assisted reproduction is over 100 billion dollars. The high incidence of infertility, the continuing delay in the age of first marriage and early childbearing, and the increasing number of elderly mothers are driving assisted reproduction as a rigid demand. On the supply side, as of the end of 2018, there were 498 assisted reproduction licenses nationwide, the vast majority of which were public hospitals. We estimate that the number of licenses has basically reached the upper limit. The future focus is on tapping the service potential of existing medical institutions. According to the company's development strategy, the company will use Queen Mary Hospital as a starting point, use informatization to empower reproductive medicine specialists, and continue to extend mergers and acquisitions of reproductive medicine online and offline resources. According to the company's 2020 business plan, the company plans to cooperate with medical institutions such as Shenyang Oriental Jinghua Hospital. Cooperation methods include, but are not limited to, establishing joint ventures and establishing Internet hospitals. We are optimistic about the company's ability to integrate assisted reproductive resources and form a core competitiveness in the assisted reproduction blue ocean market. Profit forecast and investment rating: Maintain a “buy” rating. We expect the company's EPS in 2020-2022 to be 0.85/1.11/1.36 yuan, corresponding to the current stock price PE, 60/46/37 times, respectively, to maintain the “buy” rating. Risk warning: 1) The risk that the performance of Hainan Mary Hospital falls short of expectations; 2) the risk that the company's assisted reproduction business is not progressing as expected; 3) the risk that the company's performance falls short of expectations; 4) systemic risk.

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