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国信证券(002736):经纪业务受益交投活跃 投行业务有望持续增长

國泰君安 ·  Apr 28, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Guide to this report: Guoxin Securities's net profit for the first quarter declined year-on-year, and performance was in line with expectations. The growth points of the subsequent company's business may be the investment banking business sector, which benefited from the dividends of capital market system reform, and investment income that steadily rebounded after the market recovered. Key investment points: Maintain the target price of 15.05 yuan and maintain the “increased holdings” rating. The company's operating income/net profit for the first quarter of 2020 was 4.12 billion/1.42 billion yuan, +9.97%/-24.5% year-on-year, and ROE 2.62%, down 1.13 percentage points from the previous year, in line with expectations. Considering the market fluctuations caused by the COVID-19 pandemic and the impact on investment income, we lowered the company's EPS forecast for 2020-2022 to 0.66/0.80/0.92 yuan (adjusted from the previous 2020 to 2021 forecast to 0.69/0.82 yuan), maintained the target price of 15.05 yuan, and maintained the “increase in holdings” rating. The brokerage business benefited from active trading, and investment income declined significantly in the first quarter. 1) The company benefited from active market trading in the first quarter, increased brokerage fees, and boosted fees and commission revenue by 34.02% year-on-year. 2) The company's investment income in the first quarter was 1.12 billion yuan, up 39.1% year on year, and net income from changes in fair value was 160 million yuan, down 83.9% year on year. Fluctuations in the capital market in the first quarter, leading to fluctuations in the valuation of financial assets measured by fair value were the main reason for the decline in revenue growth. As the economy stabilizes, investment income is expected to improve marginally if the market recovers. Revenue from the capital intermediary business has increased dramatically, and the investment banking business is expected to continue to benefit from the reform dividends. 1) The company's net interest income increased sharply by 105.46% in the first quarter of 2020, mainly due to an increase in interest income from securities financing and a simultaneous decrease in interest expenses. 2) The company's securities underwriting business revenue for the first quarter of 2020 was 260 million yuan, with a year-on-year growth rate of 2.6%. We believe it was mainly affected by capital market fluctuations in the first quarter. After the market returns to normal, the company's investment banking business revenue is still expected to benefit from the implementation of various institutional reform dividends in the capital market. Catalyst: The deepening of multi-level capital market reforms drives the growth of the company's investment banking business. Risk warning: Stock market fluctuations have an uncertain impact on company brokerage and proprietary business.

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