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金字火腿(002515)2019年年报及一季报点评:回归主业业绩修复 产品梯队持续丰富

國信證券 ·  Apr 27, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Returning to the main meat business, profit recovery was evident. The company achieved a year-on-year decrease of 33.98% in operating income of 282 million yuan and a year-on-year increase of 497.94%, turning a loss into a profit. For example, excluding Zhongyu Capital no longer included in the consolidated statements and the company's impact on Zhongyu Capital's share repurchase receivables of 56.13 million yuan, the company's actual revenue increased 30.24% year on year; net profit to the mother increased by 112.32% year on year. Driven by the steady growth of ham products and the rapid growth of meat products with sausage specialties, Q1's performance was further accelerated. Revenue of 191 million yuan increased by 103%, and net profit to mother of 49 million yuan increased 53%, enriching the product hierarchy and significantly improving profitability. The company actively developed specialty meat products such as sausages, sauces, bacon, bacon and imported brands of meat, innovatively launched plant-based meat, and continued to cultivate the meat trading platform and plant-based meat business. As the company's future business, it has enriched the product hierarchy and optimized the product structure to meet the needs of healthy and green consumption concepts Room for future growth huge. In particular, after the divestment of the healthcare business, the company's revenue of ham and meat products increased by 38.1% to 250 million yuan. The revenue share increased from 42.4% last year to 88.65%, making it the company's main industry. Due to the company's focus on deep processing of ham, gross margin increased by 1.5 pcts to 43.6% year-on-year, reducing the drag of the original medical business. The company's net profit margin changed from negative to positive. It reached 11.8% and 25.6% in Q1 in 2019 and 2020, respectively, and profitability improved markedly. In terms of building an influencer brand with sufficient raw material inventory to cope with cost pressure, the company used the gold brand as the core foundation to build a multi-brand matrix such as Bama, Xinweihe, and Gongji. According to the needs and product plans of different channels, it actively lays out new channels such as influencer live streaming, social e-commerce, etc., to promote online sales. In 2019, the company's online sales were 75.6 million yuan, up 44.24% year on year. The production side has stepped up efforts to import and purchase raw materials, make full use of its own cold storage for storage, overcome adverse factors such as rising domestic raw material prices, control production costs, and improve operating efficiency. In 2019, the gross margin of ham and specialty meat products reached 40.1%/56.5%/37.3% respectively, an increase of 14/19pcts over the previous year. Profit forecast and rating: The company is rapidly developing ham and specialty meat products, adding imported brands of meat and prepared meat products, cultivating plant-based meat business and influencer brand effects, and returning to the main business, and there is plenty of room for growth in performance. For the first time, the 2020-2022 EPS was given 0.16/0.23/0.32 yuan, corresponding to 42/28/20 times PE, with a one-year target valuation of 8.1-8.7 yuan, giving a “buy” rating. Risk factors: Costs fluctuate sharply; new business development falls short of expectations; and increased regional competition.

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