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理邦仪器(300206):一季度疫情调动公司供应链能力 持续关注二季度海外订单带来的增长

華西證券 ·  Apr 27, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company released its 2019 performance report, which achieved revenue of 1,136 billion yuan, an increase of 14.46% over the previous year; the net profit of the mother was 132 million yuan, an increase of 42.30% over the previous year; and the non-net profit withheld by the mother was 115 million yuan, an increase of 197.60% over the previous year. Net cash flow from operating activities was $115 million, up 40% year over year. Other revenue was 35.13 million yuan, compared to 59.74 million yuan in 2018. The company released its report for the first quarter of 2020, achieving revenue of 359 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.29%, net profit of 81.36 million yuan, an increase of 121% year-on-year, non-net profit of 67.86 million yuan, an increase of 140% year-on-year, and net cash flow from operating activities of 93.44 million yuan, an increase of 83% year-on-year. The analysis determined that R&D investment was large, R&D results were gradually showing, and the share of revenue from R&D investment gradually declined. The company's R&D investment in 2019 was 195 million yuan, accounting for 17.13% of operating income, an increase of 9.41% over the previous year. Since its listing in 2011 to the end of 2019, it has invested a total of 1,255 billion yuan in R&D. At present, the company has obtained a total of 330 invention patents, 290 utility models, and 140 design designs. The company continues to launch new products such as the Acclarix AX3 portable full digital color ultrasound diagnostic system, M36x magnetic immune analyzer, SP-1200 specific protein immunoassay analyzer, X series multi-parameter monitor, biostimulation feedback device, etc. Looking at the progress of each business by product line: (1) monitoring product revenue was 397 million yuan, up 5% year on year, basically in line with expectations, and the monitoring industry was relatively mature; (2) maternal and child system revenue was 223 million yuan, up 22% year on year; the company gradually formed its own advantage in the maternal and child system, exceeding expectations; (3) ECG system was 200 million yuan, up 11% year on year, basically in line with expectations; (4) in vitro diagnosis was 151 million yuan, up 32% year on year; among them, Dongguan Boshi's revenue was 17.14 million yuan, up 49% year on year, net profit loss of 9.27 million yuan, compared to 9.27 million yuan, compared to the previous year Losses of 11.25 million yuan in 2018 were reduced, and impairment of goodwill was not taken into account in 2019; magnetic immunoassay analyzers were installed in more than 160 hospitals in 2019, with a total installed capacity of about 300 units; we expect blood gas revenue of 100 million yuan, accounting for half at home and abroad, with reagent sales mainly accounting for more than 60%. (5) Ultrasound was 123 million yuan, an increase of 12% over the previous year, slightly exceeding expectations. The launch of the company's various lottery models led to the growth of the company's lottery business. Regionally, the domestic growth rate is even faster: domestic sales revenue is 505 million yuan, up 19.2% year on year; overseas revenue is 631 million yuan, up 11% year on year. The domestic sales team was adjusted at the end of 2018, the sales team structure was streamlined, and sales accelerated in 2019. Cost structure: The growth rate of R&D expenses is slower than the growth rate of revenue. Sales expenses increased by 9.41% year on year, management expenses increased by 3.13%, R&D expenses increased by 9.41%, and R&D investment was fully expensed. R&D investment accounted for 20.95%/17.92%/17.13% of operating income from 2017 to 2019, respectively. While maintaining a high base level of R&D investment, the rationality of the share declined. We judge that when the layout of the company's various product lines is gradually improved, the proportion of R&D investment in revenue will gradually decrease, but R&D expenses will still maintain a relatively high base. Advance payments for the first quarter increased 77% year on year. We should continue to pay attention to the incremental amount brought about by overseas orders in the second quarter. The company's advance payment for the first quarter was 53.39 million yuan, an increase of 77.17% over the previous year. According to the company's investor records, the company currently has 18 production lines, an increase of 7 over the peak of the domestic epidemic in the first quarter. In 2019, corporate monitoring, ECG, and in vitro diagnosis accounted for 66% of revenue, while overseas business accounted for 56% of revenue. Overseas business monitoring and ECG accounted for a higher share. In fact, the epidemic will boost orders more than domestic ones. We expect that the company's business revenue in the first quarter, revenue from monitoring, ECG and blood gas products will increase by about 65%, and other products will decline slightly (driven by normal international sales); based on the company's share of overseas business, the progress of the overseas epidemic (nearly 3 million confirmed cases worldwide), and the strengthening of the company's supply chain, we judge that the company's revenue from monitoring, ECG and blood gas products grew faster in the second quarter. Moreover, the domestic epidemic was brought under control and medical order was being restored. Domestic sales will develop normally, and products are in a relatively normal state of promotion. Maintaining the “buy” rating. Since the company's orders exceeded expectations, the epidemic has driven the company's IVD equipment sales to hospitals, and the company's brand power continues to improve, we have raised the company's performance. The estimated revenue from 2020 to 2022 is 14.55/17.03/1,975 billion yuan (originally revenue from 2020 to 2021 was 13.78/1,676 billion yuan), with growth rates of 28.1%/17.0%/16.0% respectively, and net profit of 2.242/2.91/353 billion yuan (originally 2020~ 2021 was 1.91/258 million yuan), with growth rates of 83.3%/20.6%/21.0%, respectively. From 2020 to 2022, PE was 33X/28X/23X, respectively, and maintained a “buy” rating, taking into account the company's unique layout in vitro diagnosis, advantages in the field of blood gas segmentation, and the company's ability to globalize. Risks suggest that production capacity supply is not timely, supply chain is blocked, and overseas sales fall short of expectations.

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