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友阿股份(002277):业绩短期承压 线上业务发展势头良好

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 26, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: Store adjustments led to a decline in revenue and net profit to mother in 2019. In 2019, the company achieved revenue of 6.25 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 13.44%, and achieved net profit of 317 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.18%, all lower than our expectations. Net profit after deducting non-return to mother was 304 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 30.98%, and net cash flow from operating activities was 11.62 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 89.20%. The company's gross margin was 19.80%, down 0.05 pct year on year, sales expense ratio was 7.26%, up 0.38 pct year on year, management expense ratio was 7.80%, up 1.1 pct year on year, financial expense ratio was 3.03%, up 1.01 pct year on year. It has opened 15 direct-run stores and is deeply involved in the Changsha region. By the end of 2019, the company had opened 15 stores in Hunan Province and Tianjin, including 9 in downtown Changsha, Hunan, 5 in other cities in Hunan Province, and 1 in Tianjin. All of the company's stores are directly managed. Among them, there are 9 owned properties, with a total construction area of 644,000 square meters, and 6 leased properties, with a total construction area of 249,000 square meters. In 2019, the company adjusted the two stores. Youa Spring Changsha store closed on February 20, 2019, and reopened on November 8, 2019, with a construction area of 30,000 square meters; the Wuyi Guangzhou underground shopping center store was closed on September 18, 2019, and reopened on January 12, 2020, and transformed into an urban outlet with a construction area of 50,000 square meters. Judging from store data, same-store revenue in Changsha decreased by 8.62%. The average annual store efficiency was 17,896 yuan/square meter, while same-store revenue outside of Changsha increased by 6.27%, and the average annual store efficiency was 3,860 yuan/square meter. By business type, same-store revenue of comprehensive department stores and specialty stores decreased by 13.73%. The average annual store efficiency was 16,959 yuan/square meter, while same-store revenue in outlets and shopping centers increased by 8.82%, and the average annual store efficiency was 5,596 yuan/square meter. The company's online business is developing well, and warehousing and logistics take the lead. The GMV of online platforms such as “Youa Overseas Purchase” and “Youa WeChat Store” built by the company was 110 million yuan, with revenue of 84.2 million yuan. Youa WeChat set up a long-term “One County, One Product, January One Product” section to create an online e-commerce specialty zone for poverty alleviation, which truly drives the sale of specialty agricultural products from poor farmers and agricultural enterprises. The holding subsidiary Oupai Yishuhui has a GMV of 736 million yuan on online third-party platforms such as Temple Library, Vipshop, Koala Shopping, and Xiaohongshu. At the same time, the company has 3 long-term leased self-operated logistics warehouses in Changsha and Hong Kong, including a 6946 square meter logistics warehouse in Changsha and a 3,000-square-meter Hong Kong warehouse. The company's logistics system uses a combination of its own logistics and social third-party logistics. The profit forecast was lowered and the “gain” rating was maintained. Due to increased uncertainty in the macro environment in 2020, we lowered our profit forecast for 2020 and added profit forecasts for 2021 and 2022. We expect the company's revenue for 2020-2022 to be 50.21 (98.45)/55.22/5.796 billion yuan, respectively, and net profit to mother 2.65 (4.81) /3.72/447 million yuan, respectively. The corresponding PE is 21/15/12 times, maintaining the “increase” rating. Risk warning. The uncertainty of the macro environment increased; online business development fell short of expectations; business competition in Hunan Province intensified.

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