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宁夏建材(600449)季报点评:业绩同比改善 西北多省供需共振

天風證券 ·  Apr 26, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company achieved revenue of 379 million yuan in the first quarter of 2020, a year-on-year decrease of 20.29%; net loss attributable to shareholders of listed companies was 16.9601 million yuan, a net loss of 55.1772 million yuan in the same period last year, which narrowed sharply; net loss after deduction was 366.192 million yuan, and a loss of 74.5838 million yuan in the same period last year. Affected by the pandemic, the decline in sales in the first quarter was in line with expectations. The cement industry in Ningxia achieved an overall output of 1.081,300 tons in Q1, down 28.61% year on year. The company is the local leader, with clinker production capacity accounting for 37.39%, and actual sales volume is expected to drop between 20-25%; the average price of high-standard cement in Q1 Yinchuan was 333.64 yuan/ton, an increase of about 22 yuan/ton over the previous year, and the price of clinker in Q1 was 200 yuan/ton. Q1 performance continued to lose money and narrowed sharply year over year. In addition to price contributions, the first quarter results also benefited from an increase in value-added tax rebates and social security relief amounts. Other income was 33.591 million yuan, an increase of 307.22,300 yuan over the previous year. Other highlights include a sharp drop of 69% in financial expenses, mainly due to a decrease in interest-bearing debt, short-term liabilities of 243 million yuan at the end of the reporting period, and 333 million yuan in non-current liabilities due during the same period last year. Non-current liabilities due within one year remained unchanged, and long-term loans of 159 million yuan remained unchanged; sales expenses decreased 23% year over year, mainly due to a decrease in sales volume and a close drop in sales expenses, and sales expenses are expected to be basically maintained. In addition, the first-quarter report still requires attention. Management expenses increased by 5.1%; about 300 million bank wealth management products were purchased during the reporting period, with monetary capital of 540 million yuan, a decrease of 35.55% compared to the beginning of the year; prepayments for nuclear fuel materials and pre-received payments increased, leading to an increase of 205.37% and 87.88% respectively compared to the beginning of the year. Bills receivable, employee remuneration payable, and taxes payable decreased by 43.01%, 57.94%, and 32.25%, respectively, from the beginning of the year, while other accounts receivable increased by 77.89% compared to the beginning of the year. Infrastructure in the northwest is driving cement more directly, and we are optimistic about infrastructure throughout 2020. In 2020, there were 80 key construction projects in Ningxia, with a total investment of 226.9 billion yuan and an annual planned investment of 51.04 billion yuan, which is basically the same as in 2019. The planned investment for that year was 15.12 billion yuan, with a total investment of 104.4 billion yuan, including water conservancy (5), railways (5), highways (4), municipal administration (7). Recently, the Yinchuan to Huinong South section of the Baoyin High Speed Rail fully resumed work. It was completed and approved in December last year and is scheduled to be completed and opened to traffic in 2023. Other projects include the Zhonglan High Speed Rail, Taiyangshan to Pengyang section of the Yinkun Expressway, capacity expansion of the Zhongning to Guyuan section of the Baozhong Railway, and the Ningxia section of the Yinbai Expressway. As of April 20, the resumption rate of key transportation construction projects in the region reached 100%. Gansu had the most outstanding performance in terms of unit fixed asset investment in cement, with the largest ratio of 0.76 among the selected regions, followed by Ningxia, which reached 0.71, far higher than the national average of 0.33; Ningxia showed the most outstanding performance in terms of the unit fixed investment in cement, and was higher than the national average; among unit construction and safety consumption factors, Ningxia, Gansu, and Zhejiang all stood out. Further resolution of the calcium slag problem in Inner Mongolia marks a gradual improvement in the supply pattern in northwest China. In 2019-20, Inner Mongolia calcium slag clinker participated in the production of false peaks. When it was impossible to miss the peak, a “false peak replacement” method was adopted. It is expected to be similar to Xinjiang achieving controllable supply side and steady price growth, thereby releasing price pressure in surrounding regions. Recently, Ningxia Zhongxin Building Materials issued a price adjustment letter, compounding the 20 yuan price increase in Ningxia in late March and the second round of price increases in parts of Gansu. We are optimistic about price elasticity and adjusted the profit forecast for 2020-21 from 930 and 956 million yuan to 1.14 billion yuan and 1.22 billion yuan, corresponding PE is 5.8X and 5.4X. Maintain a buy rating. Risk warning: The investment and financing environment in Northwest China fell short of expectations, the company's product sales fell short of expectations, the price of calcium slag cement fell short of expectations, and the volume and price performance in surrounding provinces fell short of expectations.

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