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深度*公司*新北洋(002376):业绩符合预期 明确受益于无接触需求

中銀證券 ·  Apr 23, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  The company released its 2019 annual report and 2020 quarterly report: 2019 achieved revenue of 2.45 billion yuan (-7%) and net profit of 320 million (-15%), in line with expectations; 20Q1 achieved revenue of 4.2 billion (-25%) and net profit of 15.08 million (-79%). The company is one of the few enterprises that have benefited from post-pandemic reconstruction. The growth expectations are good, the valuation is at the bottom, and the buying rating is maintained. Key points supporting the ratings The 2019 performance was in line with expectations, and Q4 achieved positive growth. In 2019, due to changes in the needs of major customers, the company's revenue growth rate was under pressure, and the performance was basically in line with the Express Report (330 million). There was a recovery in the fourth quarter, achieving revenue of 890 million dollars (+6.3%) in a single quarter, reversing the same downward trend in the 2nd to 3rd quarter. Due to the decline in the revenue base and the impact of new products and new customer development, the expense ratio increased slightly, and the sales/management/R&D expense ratio also increased by 0.8/1.0/3.7 pct. Q1 Short-term pressure is under pressure, and contactless demand will change the lackluster situation. As a leader in the field of smart devices, after a lackluster year in 2019, a low base brought high elasticity potential. This potential is catalyzed by the rebuilding of the epidemic, and is expected to usher in a more probable outbreak. Benchmark customers such as Post and Fengchao on the contactless courier cabinet circuit and Nongfu Spring on the smart retail cabinet circuit all have opportunities at inflection points in demand; Meituan and others have created integrated scenarios for intelligent logistics and retail, and there is also a possibility that they will become important customers of the company. After major customers, there is also the long-tail market, which is expected to generate business opportunities one after another, and the company's production capacity advantage will be transformed into a revenue scale advantage. The financial sector is helping. After experiencing demand suppressed by the previous gold standard policy, the traditional financial equipment sector ushered in a marked improvement in 2019, and the aftermath in 2020 should continue. Furthermore, the demand for smart bank branch transformation continues to advance. As a result, the growth rate of the financial side business is expected to begin to rise. The valuation estimates net profit of 4.1, 5.7, and 770 million yuan (CAGR over 29%) from 2020 to 2022, EPS of 0.62, 0.86, and 1.16 yuan (reduced by 10-17% based on annual report data updates and epidemic factors), and corresponding PE is 17X, 12X, and 9X. The valuation bottoming out provides sufficient safety cushion, high annual memory flexibility opportunities, and maintenance of buying ratings. The main risks faced by ratings Major customer investment fell short of expectations; new customer breakthroughs were unsuccessful; and the pandemic affected delivery.

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