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东江环保(002672):无害化业务高增长 龙头地位稳固

國泰君安 ·  Apr 23, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Maintain the “Overweight” rating. We maintained the company's 2020-2021 forecast and added a net profit forecast of 5.47/6.43/742 million yuan for 2022, respectively, and EPS of 0.62/0.73/0.84 yuan/share, respectively, giving the company 20 times PE in 2020, raising the target price to 12.40 yuan, and maintaining the “increased holdings” rating. Performance was in line with expectations. The hazardous waste disposal business drove performance growth, and impairment dragged down profits. 1) The company released its annual report. In 2019, it achieved revenue of 3.459 billion yuan, an increase of 5% over the previous year; imputed net profit of 424 million, an increase of 4% over the previous year; and deducted non-attributable net profit of 361 million, an increase of 12% over the previous year. 2) The main reason for the increase in performance is the contribution of the rapid growth of the hazardous waste disposal business. 3) The company also calculated asset impairment of 40.88 million (mainly goodwill impairment of 39 million, including Hubei Tianyin of 25.93 million, Xiantao Luyi 7.7 million, Dongheng Environmental 5.37 million, etc.) and credit impairment of 75.87 million (mainly loss of bad debts on other receivables), which had a significant impact on performance. The total production capacity in operation exceeds 1.9 million tons, and the current project is operating steadily. 1) Ongoing projects progressed smoothly, and 330,000 tons of hazardous waste production capacity were added to operation in '19. 2) By the end of '19, the company's total hazardous waste management qualifications exceeded 1.9 million tons/year, of which incineration, landfill, physicalization, and recycling were 30, 18, 600, and 820,000 tons/year respectively. 3) At present, the company's overall qualification utilization rate exceeds 44%, which is higher than the national average (2018 national average of 26%), and new production projects are yet to further release production capacity in 2020. The reserve production capacity is abundant, and the leading position is stable. 1) The total production capacity of the company under construction and preparation is 610,000 tons. The reserve capacity lays the foundation for the company's future growth. 2) The hazardous waste industry currently has an overall overcapacity, but mismatching and scarcity of production capacity in small categories is widespread, and the profitability of core projects is guaranteed. Dongjiang's current projects are basically the core assets of the industry. The value will be particularly prominent, and the leading position in hazardous waste is stable. Risk warning: Project progress falls short of expectations, project operation falls short of expectations, business risks, etc.

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