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东江环保(002672/00895.HK):2019年扣非业绩同比增长12% 期待产能释放发力

廣發證券 ·  Apr 23, 2020 00:00  · Researches

In 2019, non-deduction performance increased 11.75% year on year, and the hazardous waste business grew steadily. In 2019, the company achieved revenue of 3.459 billion yuan (RMB, same below, +5.31% year-on-year), net profit of 424 million yuan (+3.93% year-on-year), net profit of 424 million yuan (+3.93% year-on-year), and deducted non-net profit of 361 million yuan (+11.75% year-on-year). The increase in performance during the reporting period was mainly due to factors such as steady growth in the industrial waste treatment and disposal business and the acceleration of the commissioning of harmless production capacity. The company's gross margin and net profit margin remained basically stable in 2019, at 36.1% and 12.3% respectively. The proportion of harmless treatment continues to rise, with revenue from outside the province accounting for 55%. In 2015-2019, the company increased project construction efforts and adjusted the product structure, and the share of revenue from industrial waste treatment and disposal business and resource utilization business continued to rise. In 2019, it reached 79.3%, and was the company's business entity. The company's revenue share outside Guangdong Province continues to rise, with revenue outside the province accounting for 55% in 2019. The policy promotes the standardized growth of the industry, and we look forward to the release of production capacity. Affected by risk incidents caused by improper disposal of hazardous waste in industrial parks and the increase in industry standards, hazardous waste policies are frequent. It is expected that along with “waste clean-up actions” and the construction of “waste-free cities”, hazardous waste disposal construction is expected to accelerate. The company has abundant project reserves. By the end of 2019, the company had built and operated 28 hazardous waste treatment and disposal bases in 9 provinces across the country, with a total hazardous waste management qualification exceeding 1.9 million tons/year. With industry standardization and concentration of leaders, the hazardous waste construction plans of Guangdong and Jiangsu provinces are clear, and we are optimistic about the expansion of the company's production capacity in Guangdong and the Soviet provinces and other places. The production capacity under construction is abundant, and the diversified layout has built the entire industry chain to maintain the “buy” rating. The company's EPS for 2020-2022 is expected to be 0.57, 0.69, and 0.84 yuan/share, respectively. According to the latest closing price, PE is 17.48, 14.46, and 11.92 times, respectively. The compound growth rate of the company's net profit in 2020-2022 is expected to be around 20%. Referring to comparable company valuation levels and the company's leading position, we gave the company A shares a PE valuation of 20 times in 2020, corresponding to a reasonable value of 11.44 yuan/share. According to the AH share premium ratio of 1.74 on April 23, corresponding to the reasonable value of H shares at HK$6.59 per share, maintaining the “buy” ratings of Dongjiang Environmental Protection A and H shares. Risk warning. The financing environment is tight, and project financing falls short of expectations; project progress falls short of expectations, and production capacity release is slow; government environmental pollution scrutiny has become stricter, and pollutant emissions have exceeded standards.

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