The top five petrochemical products this week: acrylic acid (East China), + 28.4%; butyl acrylate (East China), + 21.5%; Propane (East China landed freezing price), + 15.6%; Methyl acrylate (East China), + 11.9%; Propylene (South Korea FOB), + 11.5%.
Petrochemical products that fell by the top five this week: crude oil futures (WTI),-19.7%; ethylene (South Korea FOB),-10.9%; crude oil futures (Brent),-10.8%; polyester filament (POY),-7.2%; polyester filament (FDY150D),-6.1%.
Products with the top five price increases this week: acrylic acid-propylene, + 134.0% PET chips (glossy)-raw materials, + 42.4% PET slices (semi-light)-raw materials, + 36.7% PP-propylene, + 20.7% ethylene glycol-ethylene, + 20.3%.
Products with a top five price drop this week: polyester filament POY- raw materials,-24.1%; ethylene-naphtha,-21.4%; polyester filament FDY- raw materials,-15.3%; alkylated oil-C4,-14.3%; methyl acrylate-acrylic acid,-12.2%.
The three major institutions have issued monthly reports on the crude oil market, continuing to reduce the growth rate of global crude oil demand.
IEA released the April OMR report, on the demand side, global oil demand in 2020 is expected to decline 9.3 million barrels per day compared with the same period last year, down 9.21 million barrels per day from last month's forecast. Production in non-OPEC countries is expected to fall by 2.3m b / d in 2020 from a year earlier, down 4.7m b / d from last month's forecast. Commercial inventories in OECD countries fell 35.4 million barrels to 2.878 billion barrels in February from a month earlier, 42.4 million barrels below the five-year average.
OPEC released the April MOMR report, on the demand side, global oil demand is expected to increase by 830,000 b / d in 2019, unchanged from last month's forecast, and global oil demand is expected to decline by 6.8 million b / d in 2020, down 6.9 million b / d from last month's forecast. On the supply side, oil supply in non-OPEC countries is expected to increase by 1.98 million b / d in 2019, 10 000 b / d lower than last month's forecast, and oil supply in non-OPEC countries is expected to decrease by 1.5 million b / d in 2020, 3.26 million b / d lower than last month's forecast. According to third-party data, OPEC countries produced 2861 million barrels per day in March, an increase of 821 million barrels per day over the previous month. It is estimated that the global demand for crude oil from OPEC countries in 2019 and 2020 is 2990 and 2450 million barrels per day respectively, which is 1.2 million and 5.4 million barrels per day lower than that in 2018 and 2019, respectively.
According to the STEO report released by EIA in 2004, it is estimated that US crude oil production in March 2020 will be 1272 million b / d, an increase of 10,000 b / d over February 2020, and US crude oil production in 2020 and 2021 is expected to be 1176 and 1103 million b / d, respectively. Us net imports of crude oil and liquid fuel are expected to be 590,000 b / d in 2019, 60,000 b / d higher than last month's forecast, 40,000 b / d in 2020 and 143,000 b / d in 2021. Global liquid fuel stocks are expected to decrease by 200,000 barrels per day in 2019, while global liquid fuel stocks are expected to increase by 3.9 million barrels per day in 2020. OPEC+ production reduction will hardly reverse the situation of oversupply of crude oil. Saudi Arabia has reduced the price of crude oil in Asia. Crude oil prices continue to fall this week, and the number of drilling in the United States has dropped sharply. Earlier this week, OPEC+ announced a two-month first round of production cuts of 9.7m b / d from May 1, 2020, and crude oil prices rebounded. However, OPEC+ production reduction is still difficult to reverse the oversupply of crude oil, superimposed by the increase in global crude oil inventories and the decline in crude oil demand, and the price of crude oil has fallen. During this period, Saudi Aramco announced the official price of crude oil for May (OSP): light crude sold to Asia was reduced by 4.20 US dollars per barrel, the price of light crude sold to the United States was increased by 3 US dollars per barrel, and the price of light crude oil sold to Europe remained unchanged, further highlighting Saudi Arabia's intention to occupy the Asian market through a price war. This week, WTI and Brent futures settlement prices fell 19.7% and 10.8% to $18.27 and $28.08 per barrel, respectively.
Us commercial crude oil inventories increased by 19.248 million b / d to 504 million b / d in the week ended April 10, US strategic crude oil stocks were 635 million b / d (unchanged from the previous week), gasoline stocks increased by 4.914 million b / d, distillate stocks increased by 6.28 million b / d, and US crude oil production in the week of April 10 was 1230 b / d, a decrease of 100,000 b / d compared with last week. The average weekly net processing capacity of US refineries was 12.665 million b / d, a month-on-month decrease of 969000 b / d, gross processing capacity of 1311.3 m b / d, a month-on-month decrease of 110.3 m b / d, and a refinery operating rate of 69.1%, a decrease of 6.5%. Baker Hughes oil service data show that as of the week ended April 17, the number of active oil rigs in the United States was 438, down 66 from a month earlier.
Supply and demand remained stable, while LNG prices fell slightly. In terms of raw material gas cost, Petrochina Company Limited's raw material gas supply price to the LNG plant in Northwest China is 1.48 yuan / cubic meter, which is the same as last week. On the supply side, the operating rate of the LNG liquefaction plant this week was 56%, which was flat on a weekly basis. On the demand side, there is no significant change in industrial demand. The ex-factory price of Huabei Elcometer LNG is 3300 yuan / ton this week, down 50 yuan / ton from last week.
PTA prices fell and PTA-PX spreads narrowed slightly. As of April 17, the price of PTA (East China) was 3245 yuan / ton, down 95 yuan / ton from last week. On the demand side, the load of polyester polymerization plant was 86.9%, an increase of 3.4 percentage points over last week. On the supply side, Fujian Jialong 600000-ton plant was overhauled on August 2, and there was no clear restart time during the year; Tianjin Petrochemical 450000-ton plant was overhauled on April 17, which is expected to last for one month; Sino-Thai 1.2 million-ton plant was overhauled on April 1 and restarted next week; Pengwei Petrochemical 900000-ton plant stopped for overhaul on March 10, postponed to July restart; Yangzi Petrochemical 350000-ton plant stopped for overhaul on December 12, postponed restart. This week, the PTA maintenance capacity is about 3.243 million tons, the long-term parking capacity is 5.25 million tons, the actual production capacity is 46.342 million tons, and the operating rate of production capacity is 97.6%. As of April 17, China Fiber Network data showed that the inventory of PTA circulation was 2.442 million tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared with last Friday.
PX (South Korea FOB) price fell 20 US dollars / ton to 471US dollars / ton, PTA (East China) price fell 95 yuan / ton from last week, the decline is larger than PX,PTA-PX price difference narrowed to 778.8 yuan / ton, 3.55 yuan / ton lower than last Friday.
The inventory of polyester filament rose slightly and the price difference narrowed. Downstream textile enterprises export orders decline, loom operating rate decreased, textile enterprises have sufficient polyester raw materials, polyester demand is weak. The average production and sales of mainstream large factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang are 30% to 50%, with a flat weekly ratio and a slight increase in inventory. China Fiber Network data show that as of April 17, polyester factory DTY, POY and FDY inventory were 29, 17 and 21 days, respectively, an increase of 2 days over last week.
The decline in the price of crude oil led to the decline in polyester prices. as of April 17, the prices of DTY, POY and FDY were 6700, 4850 and 5400 yuan / ton respectively, down 300,375,350 yuan / ton compared with last week. Polyester price downward, DTY, POY and FDY raw material price differences were 2751.6, 901.6 and 1451.6 yuan / ton, respectively, down 211.5, 286.5 and 261.5 yuan / ton compared with last Friday.
Focus on the company: under the background of oil and gas reform, the authority of crude oil import and refined oil export is gradually liberalized, the upstream refinery of private enterprises is arranged, and the new projects have the advantages of scale, technology, matching and efficiency, and are highly competitive as a whole. Some leading enterprises have a high degree of industrial chain integration and obvious advantages in scale and cost. With the release of new production capacity, new varieties and the extension of upstream and downstream industrial chains, they are expected to continue to grow in the future.
China Petroleum & Chemical, the NDRC's refined oil pricing does not deduct processing profits when the oil price is below 80 US dollars / barrel, and the oil refining boom is expected to continue. The sales company has more than 30, 000 gas stations, which has regional advantages and strong competitiveness. Overseas split listing in the future is expected to bring value revaluation.
Tongkun shares, as a leading enterprise of polyester filament, the filament production capacity continues to expand, and the market share is expected to further increase in the future. The company actively extends the industrial chain upward, participates in the Zhejiang Petrochemical Refining and Chemical Integration Project, and completes the layout of the whole industrial chain of oil refining-PX-PTA- polyester.
Rongsheng Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is a leading enterprise of PTA and PX, with an equity production capacity of about 6 million tons for PTA and 1.6 million tons for PX. Zhejiang Sinopec 2000 million tons / year refining and chemical project has been fully put into production. The project has obvious advantages in scale, cost and supporting facilities, and has strong competitiveness.
Hengli Petrochemical, after a major asset restructuring, acquired the controlling shareholder's Hengli Investment and Hengli Refinery 100% equity. Hengli Investment has 6.6 million tons of PTA plant, which is the world's largest single PTA plant. In addition, the company's 20 million-ton refining and chemical integration project was put into operation at the end of 2018 and is now in full production. The refining and chemical project has the advantages of scale, supporting and strong competitiveness. At the same time, the ethylene project has been put into production. It will also contribute profits to the company.
Hengyi Petrochemical, as a leading PTA enterprise, with a holding capacity of 13.5 million tons and equity capacity of 6.12 million tons, will fully benefit from the recovery of the PTA industry, the expansion of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of Brunei PMB800, and the expansion of polyester filament production capacity downstream, which will open up the dual industrial chain of oil refining-polyester and nylon.
Satellite Petrochemical, a leading enterprise of acrylic acid and ester, now has a production capacity of 480000 tons of acrylic acid and 450000 tons of acrylic ester, accounting for 17% and 15% of the total domestic production capacity respectively. Pinghu Petrochemical, a subsidiary of the company, has another planned production capacity of 360000 tons of acrylic acid and acrylate. The future capacity is expected to further expand and the leading position is stable. in addition, the company extends the industrial chain upstream and downstream, and has 900000 tons of PDH units upstream. Supporting 450000 tons of polypropylene plant, downstream supporting SAP, polymer emulsion equipment, the industrial chain is perfect, the company plans Lianyungang petrochemical 2.5 million tons of ethane cracking ethylene project, the future ethylene project completed and put into production, will become a new profit growth point of the company.
Oriental Shenghong, the company has 2.1 million tons / year polyester production capacity, in 2019 acquisition of 1.5 million tons / year PTA assets of Honggang Petrochemical and Shenghong Refining (Lianyungang). At present, the company has many projects under construction, including 200000 tons of filament production capacity of Hong Kong Chemical Fiber, 2.4 million tons of PTA project of Honggang Petrochemical Company and 16 million tons of refining and chemical integration project. The production and sales of polyester and PTA will continue to grow in the future. The refining and chemical integration project has a crude oil processing capacity of 1600 million tons per year, PX production capacity of 2.8 million tons per year, and ethylene production capacity of 1.1 million tons per year. After the completion of the refining and chemical project, the company will form an oil refining-PX/MEG-PTA- polyester filament pattern, the whole industry chain pattern will help the company to resist the risk of periodic fluctuations, while the refining and chemical project will become a strong growth point of future performance.
Risk hint: the risk of macroeconomic downturn, the risk of lower-than-expected demand for chemical products, and the risk of a sharp fall in international oil prices.