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新北洋(002376):业务承压 现金改善

申萬宏源研究 ·  Apr 21, 2020 17:00  · Researches

  Investment highlights: Announcement: 1) The company announced its 2019 annual report, with operating income of 2,451 million yuan, yoy -7.00% (of which 2019Q4 was 892 million yuan, yoy +6.30%); net profit to mother was 322 million yuan, yoy -15.25% (of which 2019Q4 was 103 million yuan and yoy -13.89%). The forecast revenue for 2019 was 2,470 million yuan, and net profit to mother was 332 million yuan. The results were in line with forecast expectations. According to the previously released “Product Power Leader: Fourth Quarter Profit Surprise - Computer Industry 2019 Annual Report Preview”, the company is expected to have revenue of 2,230 million yuan in 2019 and net profit to mother of 322 million yuan. Actual results are also in line with forward-looking expectations. 2) 2020Q1 was affected by the external environment in a single quarter, with operating income of 416 million yuan, yoy -24.64%, net profit to mother of 15 million yuan, yoy -78.56%. According to the previously published “Seize the opportunity at the lowest point in the 20Q1 Profit Statement! ——Computer Industry 2020Q1 Performance Forecast”. The company's revenue is estimated to be 450 million yuan and net profit to mother of 50 million yuan. It still underestimates the external impact, and the actual Q1 performance is slightly lower than expected. The 2019Q4 revenue growth rate in a single quarter turned positive, and the profit decline narrowed, but in line with market expectations. By business: 1) The financial business has picked up in 2019H2, which is verified by the recovery in 2019H2 gross margin; 2) the resumption of shipments of the 2019H2 logistics cabinet; 3) small and medium-sized operators made a breakthrough in the third quarter. 2020Q1 production, logistics, and delivery are all affected by external events. In particular, retail and logistics need to enter the community to deliver products, which have a greater impact. The gross margin improved quarterly in 2019, with a gross profit margin of 43.96% for the whole year, an improvement of 0.88pct. The approximate gross margin distribution of the company's product segments is 50% + for core components, 45% to 50% for finance, 40% to 45% for retail, and 35% to 40% for logistics. The quarterly increase in the company's gross margin is mainly due to the high share of the financial business. 1) Delivery of the STM 2019H2 began; 2) Benefiting from the wave of divider exchanges and industry policy dividends, the revenue of the sorter increased dramatically. The financial IT boom is expected to continue until 2020. Sales Expenses/ Management Expenses/ Financial Expenses/ R&D Expenses in 2019 YOY -0.78%/10.89%/20.04%/21.30%, respectively. The overall cost increase is within reasonable limits. Non-recurrent profit and loss of 79.48 million yuan, of which 48.4 million yuan was income from the disposal of shares of Valin Electronics, a one-time income. Net operating cash flow improved significantly in 2019, and cash flow management goals were achieved. The company's net operating cash flow declined rapidly in 2018. In early 2019, it proposed strengthening repayment targets and achieving cash flow management goals. Performance was under pressure, and cash flow contracted through the winter. Accounts receivable increased 4.17% year over year (slower than revenue growth), and advance payments increased 26.96% year over year (better than revenue growth); advance payments decreased sharply by 71.83%, accounts payable increased by 34.47%, and upstream accounts increased. Short-term performance is under pressure, and the “gain” rating is maintained. The company's financial business is booming and is expected to be sustainable, but the new retail industry and logistics industry are still under pressure. Combined with the impact of external events, short-term performance was pressured. The profit forecast for 2020-2021 was lowered, and the profit forecast for 2022 was increased. The original estimated revenue for 2020-2021 was 2,878 billion yuan, 3.37 billion yuan, and net profit to mother was 368 million yuan and 447 million yuan. After adjustment, revenue for 2020-2022 is expected to be 23.83, 29.41, and 3.431 billion yuan, and net profit to mother of 306, 3.77, and 448 million yuan. Maintain an “Overweight” rating.

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