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康斯特(300445):新冠疫情影响有限 公司业绩有望快速复苏

博星證券 ·  Apr 22, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Incident review The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic is limited, and the company's performance will improve rapidly in early 2020. The COVID-19 pandemic has delayed the resumption of work in the upstream and downstream industrial chains and restricted logistics, causing delays in the execution and delivery of the company's ongoing orders, which has had a certain impact on the company's overall revenue. On February 10, the company began to resume production and operation in an orderly manner. Currently, everything in the company is operating normally, and a series of specific and effective measures have been formulated to speed up order execution and delivery. In addition, some small orders that did not enter the contract before have confirmed revenue one after another, and the company's performance will improve rapidly in the future. The marketing strategy was adjusted in a timely manner. At the beginning of the strong recovery of domestic orders and the resumption of work, the company's domestic order volume shrank sharply. The company adjusted its marketing strategy in a timely manner, strengthened differentiated marketing innovation through scenario marketing, etc., and achieved interaction with end users through new media operations. Ultimately, thanks to the efforts of the sales team and various departments, the company's domestic order volume recovered strongly in March, achieving a 5% year-on-year increase in domestic downstream users without a complete resumption of work. As the domestic epidemic is gradually brought under control, domestic downstream users are expected to fully resume work, and the company's order volume will grow rapidly. Strengthening internal capabilities lays the foundation for the company's long-term development. The company continues to increase R&D investment and talent reserves, accelerate the efficiency of technological achievements transformation, continue to improve the overall informatization structure of the supply chain, and accelerate the integration of the SRM supply management system with APS and MES systems, laying a solid foundation for production and operation in 2020 and subsequent development. The company's raw material supply is not affected by the epidemic. The main raw materials of the company's products include sensors, LCD, circuit boards, power modules and other electronic components, metal materials, plastic parts, etc. The supply side of these raw materials is diverse and the quality is guaranteed. On the basis of establishing a qualified supplier management system and raw material procurement system, the company combines data to calculate demand using MRP to achieve material demand forecasting and order management, which can avoid the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the company's raw material supply. Investment suggestions: The company's estimated operating income from 2019 to 2021 is 286 million yuan, 338 million yuan, and 423 million yuan respectively; net profit of 80 million yuan, 100 million yuan and 130 million yuan respectively; EPS is 0.48 yuan, 0.60 yuan and 0.79 yuan respectively; corresponding PE is 32X, 25X and 19X respectively. Risk warning: 1. Production expansion and MEMS project construction fall short of expectations; 2. Downstream demand falls short of expectations.

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