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佳华科技(688051):核心技术&多场景协同环保物联网供应商翘楚

華西證券 ·  Apr 21, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Based on the field of environmental protection, using the continuous evolution of information technology as a means to continuously achieve iterative innovation in business forms, Jiahua Technology has now formed 5 types of core businesses, including intelligent construction, intelligent desulfurization operations, smart environmental protection, environmental monitoring and informatization, and smart cities based on environmental big data, and is a leading environmental IoT solution provider in China. Main views: Jiahua Technology's core competitiveness: (1) a business system based on a common technology platform architecture and adapted to multi-scenario operations; (2) equity incentives bundle core employees. Smart environmental protection: This year's revenue/gross profit is estimated at $352/153 million. (1) The desulfurization standard is higher than the national standard, and it has become a partner of Guodian research institutes, with obvious customer development results. It is estimated that the revenue of the intelligent desulfurization business for the next 3 years will be 0.99/115/135 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding gross profit will be 0.14/0.17/0.2 billion yuan, respectively. (2) The industry is booming, and models from sensors and platforms to data operations are advanced. It is estimated that the next 3 years, big data-driven smart environmental protection revenue will be 2.49/3.36/451 million yuan, and gross profit will be 1.36/1.84/250 million yuan, respectively. Smart Cities: This year's revenue/gross profit is expected to be $214/096 million. (1) With the country's future growth rate of 15.24%, it is estimated that the revenue of intelligent construction for the next 3 years will be 1.37/1.51/166 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to gross profit of 0.58/0.60/0.63 billion yuan. (2) The revenue for the next 3 years of Jiahua Technology's smart city business, which was developed on the basis of intelligent construction with smart environmental protection as a starting point, will be 0.77/1.03/138 million yuan, respectively, and gross profit of 0.38/0.51/067 million yuan, respectively. Profit forecasts and valuations. Net profit is estimated at $1.33/177/227 million in 2020-2022, respectively, with a compound annual growth rate of 24.08%. The price-earnings ratio was 60 times that of net profit in 2020, with a target price of 103.2 yuan. Coverage for the first time, it was given a “increase in holdings” rating. Risks indicate chip supply risk, increased market competition risk, risk of seasonal fluctuations in revenue, receivables and liquidity risk, systemic risk, etc.

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