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奥园健康(03662.HK):2019年业绩超预期 商业运营蓄势待发

克而瑞證券 ·  Apr 8, 2020 09:00  · Researches

  Maintain a highly recommended rating, with a target price of HK$8.28 per share. Aoyuan Health Life Group Co., Ltd. (“Aoyuan Health” or the “Company” for short) recently announced its 2019 results, with net profit exceeding Kerry Securities's expectations. Based on recent communication with management, we have adjusted our forecast. We continue to be optimistic about Aoyuan's health fundamentals, giving a valuation of HK$8.28 per share, equivalent to 23.0x2020 PE and 16.3x 2021 PE. 2019 results exceeded expectations. The company achieved revenue of 901 million yuan in 2019, up 45.6% year on year; realized net profit of 163 million yuan, up 107.3% year on year, exceeding Kerry Securities's expectations of 7.8%; net profit margin reached 18.0%, up 5.4 percentage points from 2018, and 1.9 percentage points higher than Kerry Securities's expectations. The company announced a dividend of RMB 0.09 per share, which is equivalent to a dividend rate of 40.2%. Property management and commercial operation areas are both growing steadily. By the end of 2019, the management area of the company's property management services was 15.082 million square meters, an increase of 4.65 million square meters over the end of 2018, an increase of 44.6%; the contract area reached 41.207 million square meters; the reserve area/management area reached 1.7x, and the company's management area was guaranteed to grow. The company's commercial operation service contract projects reached 37, and the contract construction area reached 1.8 million square meters, an increase of 493,000 square meters over 2018, an increase of 38.8%. The Fengxian plot in Shanghai reached a cooperation agreement with China's Aoyuan. The company recently announced that it has signed a cooperation framework agreement with China Aoyuan Group on the Fengxian plot in Shanghai. China Aoyuan Group will make a one-time payment of 61.5 million yuan (equivalent to 75% of the land amount of 82 million yuan) to obtain 70% of the future economic benefits of the plot. China Aoyuan Group will also bear subsequent construction costs, facility and equipment installation costs, etc.; Aoyuan Health will be responsible for the project's asset-light services such as property management, investment promotion, and operation services for the big health industry. Based on the “Oriental Beauty Valley” model founded on this project, the company can expand the fields of health care and medical beauty with an asset-light operating model. Risk warning: The company's business depends a lot on China Aoyuan Group.

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