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理邦仪器(300206):一季报归母净利润增速约125%远超预期 海外疫情持续驱动公司业绩快速增长

華西證券 ·  Apr 5, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Event Overview On April 4, the company released its performance forecast for the first quarter of 2020. Net profit was 809954 million to 84.67 million yuan, an increase of 120% to 130% over the previous year, while net profit for Q1 in 2019 was 368.16,100 million yuan. Analysis and judgment: The company's non-net profit increased 145% year on year, and net profit continued to improve. Judging from the median value of the company's predicted net profit, the company's 2020 Q1 net profit was 82,8362 million yuan, up 125% year on year. Among them, non-recurring profit in 2019 was 8.57 million yuan, deducted non-net profit was 28.25 million yuan, while the company's non-recurring profit in Q1 in 2020 was 13.5 million yuan. The company's operating efficiency has been greatly improved, and the quality of operation has been greatly improved. 62% of the company's business benefited significantly from the pandemic. The foreign epidemic far exceeded expectations and continued to drive the company's product exports, and the company's monitor, electrocardiogram and IVD product lines continued to benefit from the continued spread of the epidemic. In 2018, the company's three product lines accounted for 33%, 17%, and 12% of the company's business revenue, respectively, that is, a total of 62% of products benefited from the epidemic. The company's production lines were expanded from 6 to 11 at the peak of the domestic epidemic in February. As the overseas epidemic continued to ferment (as of 22:00 on April 5, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 overseas exceeded 1.14 million and an increase of 60,000 compared to the previous day, with a cumulative total of 83,000 confirmed cases in China), the normal return of domestic workers to work, and the domestic epidemic under control, we judged that the company's production lines continued to be tight and production accelerated to cope with the huge demand brought about by the foreign epidemic. In 2018, the company's overseas business revenue was 569 million yuan, accounting for 57% of the business, and overseas business was mainly monitoring, ECG, and IVD. In the early days of the overseas epidemic, the company received orders for 20 blood gas analyzers from Italy. We expect that the company now has more overseas orders than domestic ones at the time. Years of continuous R&D investment to improve product line layout From 2014 to 2018, the company has accumulated R&D investment of 794 million yuan (full cost). Currently, the company has mastered microfluidic industrialization technology (the first company in the domestic IVD field to master microflow core technology and industrialize), the company is the leading company in the dry blood gas analyzer i15, and the company is the first company in the world to develop the magnetic immune analyzer M16. The product has been upgraded to the mid-range. Currently, the company's continuous investment in R&D over many years is beginning to enter a return point. Maintaining the “buy” rating, we expect revenue to be 11.36/13.78/1,676 billion yuan in 2019-2021, with a growth rate of 14.50%/21.23%/21.63%, respectively, and net profit of 1.31/1.91/258 billion yuan (based on prudential principles, we will not adjust the company's profit forecast yet; specific parameters still need to be adjusted according to the company's Q1 performance report), with growth rates of 41.74%/45.47%/35.08%, respectively, and PE in 2019-2021, 55X /38X/28X, and maintaining a “buy” rating, taking into account the company's unique layout in in vitro diagnostics, advantages in the field of blood gas segmentation, and the company's ability to globalize. Risks suggest that production capacity supply is not timely, supply chain is blocked, and overseas sales fall short of expectations.

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