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银座股份(600858):业绩符合预期 收入端承压

光大證券 ·  Apr 10, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The company's 2019 revenue decreased 7.39% year on year, and net profit to mother increased 14.15% year on year. In 2019, it achieved operating income of 12.262 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.39%; realized net profit of 53 million yuan, equivalent to fully diluted EPS of 0.10 yuan, an increase of 14.15% year on year; realized net profit without deduction of 52 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 11.50%. The performance was in line with expectations. The company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 0.35 yuan (tax included) for every 10 shares to all shareholders. Looking at the single-quarter split, 4Q2019 achieved operating income of 3,050 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 15.15%; realized net profit of 4.73 million yuan, converted to fully diluted EPS of 0.01 yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 53.43%; realized net profit deducted from non-mother of 17.9 million yuan, a decrease of 57.77% year on year. The comprehensive gross margin increased by 1.22 percentage points, and the cost ratio increased by 1.58 percentage points during the period. The company's comprehensive gross margin in 2019 was 20.59%, up 1.22 percentage points from the previous year. The company's expense ratio for the 2019 period was 18.17%, up 1.58 percentage points from the previous year. Among them, the sales/management/ finance expenses ratio was 13.50%/2.44%/2.23%, respectively, with a year-on-year change of 0.75/0.26/0.57 percentage points, respectively. The revenue side of all business formats is under pressure, and regional competitive pressure continues to increase. By the end of the reporting period, the company had 130 stores (including 25 stores in Huaxing, Linqu, Weifang), with a total construction area of 3.253,900 square meters. The company's department store/supermarket/shopping center business revenue changed by -5.11%/-5.28%/-5.54% year-on-year, respectively, during the reporting period, and the performance was quite lackluster. The Shandong region has many powerful retail listed companies. The company faces increasing competitive pressure. Combined with the negative impact of the epidemic on the economy and business environment, the company may seek transformation in the future through deep changes in organizational structure and management. Lower the profit forecast and maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Considering the impact of the pandemic on the company's department store and shopping center business, we lowered our forecast for the company's EPS for 2020-2021 to 0.05/0.08 yuan (previously 0.11/0.12 yuan), and added 0.10 yuan for 2022. The company's 2020 PB=0.7X is at its lowest position in history. Long-term investors may be able to gradually lay out and maintain the “gain” rating. Risk warning: Regional competition has been further strengthened, and the cultivation of new stores has taken longer than expected.

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