Shen Wanhongyuan (000166): investment-driven performance has improved significantly, investment banking and asset management have improved steadily.

中金公司 · Apr 1, 2020 00:00 · Researches

2019 年业绩小幅低于我们预期

申万宏源2019 年营收同比+61%至246 亿元，归母净利润同比+38%至57 亿元、低于我们预期7.0%，主因投资业务收略低于预期且期末加大信用资产减值；报告期ROAE 同比+0.8ppt 至7.5%；4Q19净利润同/环比+15% /-37%至亿元9.8 亿元。公司期末净资产同比+20%至832 亿元（2019 年4 月H 股IPO 融资89 亿港币），业务及管理费率同比-13ppt 至32%，自有资产杠杆率同比-0.4x/环比+0.1x 至3.7x。

发展趋势

投资业务带动业绩显著提升。2019 年投资收入同比+45%至56 亿元、收入贡献36%（总收入剔除大宗商品销售收入），对应交易性金融资产规模同比+22%至1,152 亿元、投资收益率同比+1.3ppt 至5.4%。金融资产总计1,760 亿元，其中债券(+29%): 基金(+46%)：

股票(-2%): 其他(+24%)=67.8%: 13.5%：1.3%: 17.5%。

经纪业务增幅略低于行业。2019 年经纪收入同比+16%至38 亿元（vs.市场股基交易额+36%）、测算佣金率同比-11%至万3.2，其中：

1）代销金融产品收入同比+5.8%至8,946 万元、占经纪收入1.6%；2）席位租赁收入同比+4.0%至4.2 亿元、占经纪收入11%。

投行业绩随市增长。2019 年投行收入同比+33%至12 亿元、收入贡献7.4%（总收入剔除大宗商品销售收入）。其中：股票主承销规模同比+8.2%至139 亿元、市占率同比-0.2ppt 至0.9%，债券主承销规模同比+96%至869 亿元、市占率同比+0.2ppt 至0.6%。此外，公司积极把握新三板深化改革机遇，已储备一批拟申报精选层企业。

资管业务表现稳健、主动管理规模提升。2019年资管收入同比+7.6%至13亿元，其中：1）主动管理业务收入占比86%、同比+11ppt；2）公募基金方面，申万菱信（持股67%）期末管理资产规模同比+46%至762亿元，盈利同比-20%至6,320万元；富国基金（持股28%）公募规模同比增长~70%至3,391亿元、盈利同比+12%至7.9亿元。

融资业务方面，净利息收入同比-4.1%至32亿元，其中：1）两融利息同比-1.5%至36亿元、期末余额同比+21%至517亿元（市占率5.1%）；2）股质利息同比-26%至21亿元、期末表内余额同比-44%至245亿元（市占率2.6%），降幅大于行业（vs.市场股票质押回购融资余额-19%）。此外，当期信用减值同比+17%至7.2亿元，主要为债权投资、应收款项、买入返售金融资产和其他债权投资减值准备。

盈利预测与估值

由于上调利息收入假设，我们上调公司2021e 盈利预测5.3%至70亿元,维持2020 年盈利预测不变。当前A 股对应2020e/2021e1.3x/1.2x P/B。维持中性评级和5.01 元目标价（2020 年1.4x P/B、2021 年1.4x P/B，14%上行空间）。

风险

交易额大幅萎缩、市场剧烈波动、资本市场改革不及预期

The performance in 2019 was slightly lower than we expected.

Shen Wanhongyuan's revenue in 2019 was from + 61% to 24.6 billion yuan, and its net profit was from + 38% to 5.7 billion yuan, which was 7.0% lower than our expectation, mainly because the income of investment business was slightly lower than expected and increased the impairment of credit assets at the end of the period. ROAE year-on-year + 0.8ppt to 7.5% th 4Q19 net profit in the reporting period is the same as + 15% /-37% to 980 million yuan. At the end of the period, the company's net assets were + 20% to 83.2 billion yuan (HK $8.9 billion raised by H-share IPO in April 2019), the business and management fees were-13ppt to 32%, and the leverage ratio of its own assets was year-on-year-0.4x/ + 0.1x to 3.7x.

Trend of development

Investment business led to a significant improvement in performance. In 2019, investment income was + 45% to 5.6 billion yuan, income contributed 36% (total revenue excluding income from commodity sales), the size of corresponding transactional financial assets was + 22% to 115.2 billion yuan, and the rate of return on investment was + 1.3ppt to 5.4%. Financial assets total 176 billion yuan, of which bonds (+ 29%): funds (+ 46%):

Stock (- 2%): other (+ 24%) = 67.8%: 13.5% 1.3%: 17.5%.

The growth rate of brokerage business is slightly lower than that of the industry. Brokerage income in 2019 was + 16% year on year to 3.8 billion yuan (vs. Market stock-based trading volume + 36%), the estimated commission rate is-11% to 10,000 3.2 compared with the same period last year, of which:

1) income from consignment sales of financial products is + 5.8% to 89.46 million yuan, accounting for 1.6% of brokerage income. 2) seat rental income is from + 4.0% to 420 million yuan, accounting for 11% of brokerage income.

The performance of investment banks grows with the market. In 2019, investment banking revenue was + 33% to 1.2 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, and revenue contributed 7.4% (total revenue excluding commodity sales income). Among them: the main underwriting scale of stocks is from + 8.2% to 13.9 billion yuan year-on-year, the market share is from-0.2ppt to 0.9%, the main underwriting scale of bonds is from + 96% to 86.9 billion yuan, and the market share is from + 0.2ppt to 0.6%. In addition, the company actively grasps the opportunity of deepening the reform of the new third board and has reserved a number of selected layer enterprises to be declared.

The performance of asset management business is steady, and the scale of active management is improved. Year-on-year asset management income in 2019 is from + 7.6% to 1.3 billion yuan, of which: 1) actively managing business income accounts for 86% and + 11ppt-2) in terms of public offering funds, Shen Wanlingxin (67% shareholding) has assets under management at the end of the period from + 46% to 76.2 billion yuan, and profits from-20% to 63.2 million yuan; Wells Fargo funds (28%) increased by 70% to 339.1 billion yuan and profits from + 12% to 790 million yuan.

In terms of financing business, net interest income was-4.1 to 3.2 billion yuan compared with the same period last year, of which: 1) year-on-year interest from 1.5% to 3.6 billion yuan, ending balance + 21% to 51.7 billion yuan (market share 5.1%); 2) equity interest year-on-year-26% to 2.1 billion yuan, ending balance-44% to 24.5 billion yuan (market share 2.6%), the decline was greater than that of the industry (vs. Market stock pledge repurchase financing balance-19%). In addition, the current credit impairment is + 17% to 720 million yuan compared with the same period last year, mainly for debt investment, receivables, purchase and resale of financial assets and other debt investment impairment provisions.

Profit forecast and valuation

As a result of raising the interest income assumption, we raised the company's 2021e profit forecast by 5.3% to 7 billion yuan, leaving the profit forecast for 2020 unchanged. At present, A shares correspond to 2020e/2021e1.3x/1.2x Pamp B. Maintain a neutral rating and a target price of 5.01 yuan (1.4x Ppica B in 2020 and 14% upstream space in 2021).

Risk

The trading volume shrank sharply, the market fluctuated violently, and the capital market reform fell short of expectations.

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申万宏源(000166)：投资驱动业绩显著提升、投行及资管稳中有升

Shen Wanhongyuan (000166): investment-driven performance has improved significantly, investment banking and asset management have improved steadily.

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