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华宝股份(300741):新业务拓展加速 2020Q1良性增长

國泰君安 ·  Mar 29, 2020 00:00  · Researches

The 2019 performance was in line with expectations, new business accelerated, optimized expenses, increased net interest rates, and maintained a high dividend strategy. The resumption of work and production progressed in an orderly manner, and 2020Q1 maintained steady growth after deducting non-net profit. Key investment points: Maintain an increase in holdings rating. New business promotion and fee control effects are impressive, the high dividend ratio has defensive attributes, and the performance in Q1 2020 was steady. The 2020-2021 EPS was raised to 2.08 (+0.02) and 2.22 (+0.02) yuan. The 2022 EPS is expected to be 2.42 yuan, maintaining the target price of 40 yuan. 2020Q1 subsidies were delayed, excluding steady growth in performance. The company's 2019 revenue was 2.185 billion yuan, +0.75% year-on-year, and net profit was 1,236 billion yuan, +5.09% year-on-year. Both revenue and profit growth rates were positive, in line with expectations. The company predicts net profit range for 2020Q1 is 249-293 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0%-15%, of which non-recurring profit and loss is about 17 million yuan (56.61 million yuan for 2019Q1), mainly due to delays in government subsidies due to the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic. The profit range after deduction is 232-276 million yuan, and the year-on-year fluctuation range is -2%-16%, maintaining positive growth. The main business is stable, business expansion is accelerated, and profitability has improved. The main business, edible essence, revenue was stable, -1.42% year-on-year, and the reduction in direct labor costs (-4.6%) led to a gross margin of +0.15pct to 81.37%. New business development has achieved remarkable results. The food ingredients business increased by +41% to 97.63 million yuan, and the daily essences benefited from new products and new customers by +16.6% to 78.78 million yuan. The combined share of the two increased by 1.8 pct to 8%. While ensuring research and development, expenses were strictly controlled. The sales and management expenses ratio was -0.87 and -1.3 pct year on year, and the final net interest rate was +2.3 pct to 57.4% year on year. The resumption of work and production progressed smoothly, with a high dividend rate and a high dividend rate. The company's production scale advantage is obvious. Beginning in early February, it began to gradually resume work and resume production in an orderly manner. Currently, production levels have returned to normal, and will continue to develop and innovate new categories in the future. Continuing the high dividend strategy, the company plans to distribute a cash dividend of 1.98 yuan per share, with a dividend rate of 98.6%, corresponding to the static dividend rate of 6.3% in response to the current stock price, and the allocation value is prominent. Risk warning: macroeconomic decline, increased industry competition, etc.

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