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融信中国(03301.HK):债务结构优化 销售稳步增长

興業證券 ·  Mar 25, 2020 00:00  · Researches

Our view: The company's leverage ratio continues to decline, and the debt structure continues to be optimized (the short-term cash ratio rose to 1.8, compared to 1.0 in 2018). Further reduction in the share of short-term debt is also one of the company's future goals. The Central Plains region has sufficient resources for old reform, which will gradually be converted into land reserves. The two City of Time projects in Zhengzhou and Taiyuan both began to be approved in 2019. Currently, 5.5 million square meters are still pending approval, and it is expected that implementation will continue in 2020. At the same time, the company increased its dividend ratio in 2019 (20% to 29%), the current dividend yield reached 8.5%, and the current stock price corresponding to 2019 PE is 3.4 times that of 2019. Guimu's core net profit increased 27% year on year, and the performance was in line with expectations: in 2019, the company achieved operating income of 51.5 billion yuan, an increase of 50% over the previous year; Guimu's core net profit was 3.2 billion yuan, up 27% year on year. Gross margin was 24.2%, up 0.7 percentage points year on year; core net profit margin was 6.2 percent, down 1.1 percentage points year on year. The annual dividend was HK60 cents per share, and the total dividend payout accounted for 29% of core net profit. The sales scale is growing steadily: the company's sales target for 2020 is 150 billion yuan, an increase of 6% over the previous year. The annual saleable value is 220 billion yuan, and the corresponding removal rate is 68% (the removal rate has remained around 70 over the years). The Yangtze River Delta, Haixi, Central Plains and other regions accounted for 52%, 19%, 14%, and 15% of saleable value in 2020, respectively. The pace of land acquisition is steady: In 2019, the company added 46 new land projects, added 7.31 million square meters of land reserves, added a new land price of 36.8 billion yuan, and an average land acquisition cost of 6,648 yuan/square meter. As of the end of the year, the company's total land storage area was 26.96 million square meters, an increase of 6% over the previous year. The overall average land cost was 6897 yuan/square meter, accounting for 32% of the average sales price. The short-term debt ratio continues to decline: the company's net debt ratio as of the end of 2019 was 70%, down 35 percentage points from the previous year. The average cost of financing was 6.9%, down 20bps year over year. As of the end of the year, the company's carrying cash was 34.3 billion yuan, and interest-bearing liabilities were 63.2 billion yuan, of which short-term debt accounted for 30%, and the coverage ratio for short-term cash debt was 1.8, an increase of 0.8 per cent over the previous year. Risk warning: macroeconomic growth is slowing, industry restrictions are being tightened, liquidity is tightening, commercial housing sales fall short of expectations, and RMB depreciation.

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