Main points of investment
Items:
The company released its annual report in 2019, with revenue of 173 million yuan (+ 4.3%) and net profit of-95.969 million yuan (- 1222.3%). The EPS is-0.09 yuan, and the company has no dividend this year.
Peace viewpoint:
Sales of listed products are growing well. The company has two commercial products, the anti-hepatitis B drug Danorivir and interferon Pairoxin. In 2019, Danorivir generated sales revenue of 124 million yuan (+ 72.2%), while Pairoxin generated sales revenue of 47.638 million yuan (+ 1271.3%). The substantial growth of these two products is a testament to the company's good sales ability. In 2019, the price of Danorivir's competitive products has been greatly reduced to health insurance, and Danorivir's sales are expected to face greater pressure in 2020. But at the same time, the company's lavedavir is expected to go on sale in the first half of 2020, when the full oral program of lavedavir and Danorivir will provide an increase in the company's sales of antiviral drugs.
Two blockbuster drugs are expected to produce mid-term clinical results this year. The PD-L1 developed by the company in cooperation with Corning Jerry is used in the treatment of chronic hepatitis B. the drug is expected to achieve the clinical cure of hepatitis B. At present, PD-L1 has been approved to enter the clinical II phase, and preliminary trial results are expected in mid-2020. The company has the world's first oral FASN inhibitor for the treatment of NASH. Phase 1b clinical trials show that the drug can reduce liver new fat synthesis by 24% Mel 73%, and has excellent lipid-lowering effect. At present, the project is in the clinical stage of Ⅱ, and it is the fastest-growing new NASH drug in China. The results of phase Ⅱ clinical trials of the drug are also expected within this year. It is recommended that active attention be paid to it.
Maintain the recommended rating. Maintaining the previous forecast, the company's EPS from 2020 to 2022 is expected to be-0.09,0.06 and-0.03 (new) yuan respectively, and the corresponding PE is-28X/-38X/-96X respectively. There is a lack of specific drugs in the domestic liver disease market. As one of the few companies in the forefront of liver disease drug research and development, the company has considerable potential in the future. The listing of lavedavir in 2020, and the clinical results of PD-L1 and ASC40, could be a catalyst for share prices. Share prices are at an all-time low, maintaining a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: 1, due to the impact of the epidemic, the company's declared products and products in clinical trials may be delayed; 2, many of the company's drugs under research are complete innovation targets, with the risk of failure; 3, affected by the price reduction of hepatitis C DAA drugs, the performance of the products sold by the company may be dragged down.