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深度*公司*申万宏源(000166):机构及交易业务良性发展 业绩实现较快增长

Depth * Company * Shen Wanhongyuan (000166): the benign development of institutional and trading business has achieved rapid growth.

中銀國際 ·  Mar 28, 2020 00:00  · Researches

In 2019, the company achieved an operating income of 24.593 billion yuan, an increase of 60.98% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 5.735 billion yuan, an increase of 37.86% over the same period last year. 19EPS 0.23 yuan, 19BVPS3.32 yuan.

Net profit grew steadily, and the proportion of subsidiary commodities business increased significantly: 1) the company achieved revenue of 24.593 billion yuan in 19 years, an increase of 60.98% over the same period last year; and realized net profit of 5.735 billion yuan, an increase of 37.86% compared with the same period last year. 19-year net interest rate and annualized ROE were 23.32% and 7.52%, respectively, higher than the industry average (6.30%). 2) the income from proprietary business, brokerage, credit, asset management and investment banking accounts for 22%, 15%, 13%, 5% and 5% respectively, while other businesses account for 40%. The commodity trading income of subsidiaries has increased significantly, but it is also a drag on the company's profit margin.

Self-management increased by nearly 50% + investment bank increased by 1xuan3, when the wealth management transformation was going on: 1) the company achieved 5.326 billion yuan in self-operating business income in 19 years, an increase of 46% over the same period last year, effectively magnifying the flexibility of the company's performance. By the end of 1919, proprietary assets totaled 175.686 billion yuan, an increase of 28.86 percent over the beginning of the year. 2) the investment banking business income in 19 years was 1.162 billion yuan, an increase of 33% over the same period last year. For the whole year, the total amount of stock and debt underwriting of the company is 164.924 billion yuan, with a market share of 1.86%. Among them, the amount of IPO underwritten by the company reached 3.1 billion yuan, with a market share of 1.24%. It has successfully broken the ice since IPO was suspended for 18 years. 3) the revenue of brokerage business in 19 years was 3.796 billion yuan, an increase of 16% over the same period last year. At the end of the period, the custodian assets of the company's securities customers were 3.2 trillion yuan, an increase of 33.67% over the end of last year.

4) in terms of wealth management transformation, there were 7.27 million retail customers and 2357 investment advisers (seventh in the industry) at the end of the period, up 11% and 27% respectively over the same period last year. The big winner, app, has 1.12 million monthly active users, a year-on-year increase of 61%.

Active management and capital assistance management has improved against the trend, and the institutional and trading business has greatly doubled: 1) in 19 years, the company achieved an asset management business income of 1.289 billion yuan (the fifth in the industry), an increase of 8% over the same period last year. The contribution of active management income reached 86%, an increase of 11 percentage points over the same period last year. 2) the credit business income in 19 years was 3.219 billion yuan, a slight decrease of 4% compared with the same period last year. The balance of the two finals at the end of the period was 51.7 billion yuan, up 21% from the beginning of the year, but the market share fell by 58bp to 5.07%. 3) the income of the company's institutional and trading business (including PB, FICC, equity trading market-making business, derivatives business, etc.) was 13.399 billion yuan, an increase of 143% over the same period last year. Among them, the company's over-the-counter derivatives business has developed healthily, with a market share of 12.3%, ranking fifth in the industry. During the reporting period, the company listed in Hong Kong and joined the ranks of "AbigH". The amount of H-share financing is 1.16 billion US dollars, which strengthens the capital strength and plays an important role in the business capitalization reform and transformation of the company.

Valuation

According to the latest annual report, we slightly adjusted the company's 21-year homing net profit forecast from 677.6 billion yuan to 677.7 billion yuan, with an additional 22-year forecast value of 8.2 billion yuan to maintain the overweight rating.

Risk hint

The impact of the policy on the industry is greater than expected; the dual impact of market fluctuations on industry performance and valuation

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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