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慈文传媒(002343):国资控股影视剧龙头 2020年影视主业高增长可期

海通證券 ·  Mar 26, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  A leader in the production of high-quality movies and TV dramas, with strong security margins for state-owned enterprise holdings. The company's main business is the production of premium movies and TV dramas. In 2015, it was listed on the back of a stock market. In 2019, the company's actual controller was changed to the Jiangxi provincial government and became a local state-owned enterprise. At present, the new management level has been established, and state-owned holdings have strengthened the margin of operating safety. Mr. Ma Zhongjun, the original controller, is still the chief content officer, and the production team is stable. In 2019, the company's performance forecast indicates net profit of 160 million yuan to 210 million yuan, turning a loss into a profit. We believe that the delay in the progress of film and television drama projects due to the epidemic is only a short-term one-time impact. The main logic points for the positive improvement of the film and television industry are: 1) The supply side is clear, and resources are concentrated on the lead. In 2019, the number of institutions holding “TV Series Production License (Type A)” was reduced from 113 in 2018 to 73, a drop of up to 35%. Industry clearance accelerates the development of boutique products, and resources are expected to be further skewed towards leading companies. 2) The demand side for long videos is strong. The amount of content purchased on major film and television video sites continues to increase steadily, and demand for viewing is strong; 3) New short video distribution and monetization channels have been added. The expansion of short video platforms into the field of long videos (for example, “Damn Mom” premiered online on short video platforms such as Watermelon Video on January 25, 2020) can add new monetization channels to high-quality content, and is also expected to drive content innovation such as “short dramas”. The company's goodwill impairment was completed, and “quality control+volume” became the main business strategy goal in 2020. We believe that the company's goodwill depreciation of 866 million yuan in 2018 is already through the most difficult time from a financial perspective. 2020 will focus on film and television content development and operation, comprehensively increase the number of film and television drama productions and do a good job in subject transformation. While doing a good job in content development for leading movies and TV dramas, collaborating to carry out artist brokerage, variety shows, games and other related businesses, and actively build Ciwen's “brand +” pan-entertainment platform, the company's performance is expected to continue to improve. Profit forecasting and valuation. We expect the company's revenue in 2019-2021 to be 2.163 billion yuan, 2,936 billion yuan and 3.368 billion yuan, respectively, up 50.7%, 35.8% and 14.7% year on year; net profit is 161 million yuan, 219 million yuan and 285 million yuan respectively, up 114.7%, 36.3% and 30.1% year on year; corresponding fully diluted EPS is 0.34 yuan/share, 0.46 yuan/share and 0.60 yuan/share, respectively. Referring to the average PE valuation of comparable companies in the film and television industry in 2020, we consider Ciwen Media as the leading target in the film and television drama industry. We gave Ciwen Media a PE valuation of 25-30 times in 2020, corresponding to a reasonable value range of 11.5 yuan/share to 13.8 yuan/share, giving it a superior market rating. Risk warning: Affected by the epidemic, there is a risk that movies and TV dramas will launch and production cycles will be extended. The broadcast results of movies and TV dramas will fall short of expectations, the risk of bad debts due to receivables, and the risk of inventory impairment.

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