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融信中国(3301.HK):业绩释放 财务结构显著改善

國泰君安 ·  Mar 25, 2020 00:00  · Researches

  Guide to this report: After the scale explosion exceeded 100 billion dollars, 2019 entered a period of performance release, and profits grew rapidly; the company's growth changed from scale to quality, financial structure and liquidity improved markedly, dividends increased dramatically, and stability improved. Summary: Maintaining an increase in holdings rating, with a target price of HK$14.34. The company's performance growth was in line with expectations, achieving net profit of 3.15 billion yuan and eps of 1.87 yuan, an increase of 46.7% and 35.5% respectively. After sales exceeded 100 billion dollars in 2018, the company began to grow steadily and entered a period of performance release; the financial structure improved markedly and dividends increased dramatically; the steady land acquisition style and active search for first-level and second-level land development links will ensure the company's continued steady development. The EPS forecast given to the company for 2020-2022 is RMB 2.47, 3.03, and RMB 3.61. The closing price of HK$7.02 (RMB 6.43) on March 24 corresponds to PE 2.6, 2.1, and 1.8, respectively. Performance entered the release period as scheduled, and gross margin increased steadily. 1) After the company's sales explosion in 2018 exceeded 100 billion dollars, 2019 ushered in a performance release period. The settlement area increased 79.6% year on year, and the settlement amount increased 50.4% year on year. 2) The company's gross profit margin was 24.2%, up 0.7 percentage points from the previous year. The average sales price in 2019 was 21,583 yuan/square meter, which remained at 21,000 yuan/square meter for 3 consecutive years. It is expected that subsequent gross margin will still be guaranteed. From scale to quality, seek change on the ground. 1) In 2019, sales revenue was 141.3 billion yuan, up 15.9% year on year, achieving the sales target of 140 billion dollars. After breaking through 100 billion dollars, sales began to grow steadily. 2) Looking at the land side, the company added 7.3 million square meters of land reserves in 2019, amounting to 48.5 billion yuan, with an investment intensity of 34%, which is slightly lower than expected. It plans to maintain a land investment intensity of 30%-50% in the future. Out of 7.3 million square meters, 1.77 million square meters of land were acquired by level 1 and 2, accounting for about 1/4. The company's active layout of level 1 and 2 linkage is beginning to bear fruit. 3) Currently, the company has 27 million square meters of land storage, with Tier 1 and 2 accounting for 81%, and the land cost is 6897 yuan/square meter, which is only 32% of the average sales price. High-quality land storage guarantees high-quality development. The financial structure continues to be optimized, liquidity has been improved, and dividends have been increased. During the period of scale expansion, the company's liquidity was tight. As the growth rate stabilized, liquidity improved markedly. 1) Interest-bearing debt of 63.2 billion dollars, which is basically the same as the previous year, the net debt ratio fell from 105% to 70%, the share of short-term interest-bearing debt fell from 39.7% to 29.6%, and the debt term structure was greatly improved; 2) Under improved liquidity, the company increased its dividend payout of 0.6 yuan per share, an increase of 64% over the previous year, a dividend ratio of 29%, and a decline in scale growth, we expect the company to maintain a high dividend ratio. Risk warning: Land acquisition efforts continue to be low.

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